威灵顿管理公司副主席Scott Geary:河中之石——资产管理行业如何变革

10月21日，2026金融街论坛年会证监会主论坛在北京举行。本次论坛以“建设一流投资机构 服务资本市场高质量发展 共享投资中国新机遇”为主题，由中国证券监督管理委员会主办、中国证券投资基金业协会承办。威灵顿管理公司（Wellington Management）副主席顾苏君（Scott Geary）出席并发表演讲。

The Rocks in the River:

How Asset Management Is Changing

河中之石：资产管理行业如何变革

顾苏君（Scott Geary）

威灵顿管理公司副主席、高级董事总经理、合伙人、全球财富总监

Thank you for having me. It is an honor to join you in Beijing and to speak to leaders who shape not only financial markets, but the long-term financial security of hundreds of millions of people.

感谢各位邀请我出席本次活动。能够来到北京，与各位共同塑造金融市场乃至数亿人长期金融保障的业界领袖交流，我深感荣幸。

This is an especially important moment to gather. China’s continued efforts to deepen its capital markets, support long-term investment, and expand the range of solutions available to investors have significance far beyond China, helping shape the evolution of the global financial system.

此刻相聚尤为重要。中国持续深化资本市场改革、支持长期投资，并拓展可供投资者选择的解决方案，其意义远不止于中国，也在助力塑造全球金融体系的演进方向。

This is also one of the most consequential periods in the history of asset management, and the pace of change is arguably the fastest it has ever been.

当前也是资产管理行业历史上最具深远影响的时期之一，变革速度可以说前所未有。

An early mentor of mine used to say that the market is a river, always moving and changing, and I had better learn to swim in different waters. After 33 years in this industry, I still believe he was right.

我的一位早期导师曾经说过，市场就像一条河，始终流动、不断变化，而我必须学会在不同的水域中游泳。在这个行业工作了33年后，我依然认为他说得对。

But today the river has more rapids. Some of that is cyclical, just more rainfall, and it will pass. But some of it is structural: rocks that will permanently alter the river’s course and require real adaptation.

但如今，这条河中的急流更多了。有些变化具有周期性，就像雨水增多，终会过去；但另一些变化则具有结构性，就像河中的岩石，将永久改变河流的走向，也要求我们作出真正的调整。

Today I want focus on four of those rocks, all through one lens: the client. Our industry exists for one reason: to help people and institutions reach their financial goals. Yet our clients — who they are, where they are, and what they expect — are changing faster than at any point in my career.

今天，我想从同一个视角，也就是客户的视角，谈谈其中的四块“岩石”。我们这个行业存在的唯一理由，是帮助个人和机构实现其财务目标。然而，我们的客户是谁、身处何地以及有何期待，正以前所未有的速度发生变化。

So let me begin with the first rock: the evolution of the client

首先，让我们从第一块岩石谈起：客户的演变

Two significant changes are reshaping the client base. First, the growth map is being redrawn outside the United States. Second, the individual investor is becoming increasingly important.

两项重大变化正在重塑客户群体。第一，增长版图正在美国以外的市场重新绘制。第二，个人投资者正变得日益重要。

The US remains the world's largest asset management market, but growth is shifting globally. The Asia Pacific and EMEA regions are expected to materially outpace the US, with Asia Pacific alone projected to account for close to 40% of global growth in net new flows.

美国仍是全球最大的资产管理市场，但增长动力正在向全球其他地区转移。预计亚太和欧洲、中东及非洲地区的增速将显著超过美国，仅亚太地区就有望贡献全球新增净流量增长的近40%。

I recently spent more than six years living in Hong Kong and traveling around the region. The dynamism is unmistakable — from China’s transportation infrastructure to Singapore’s modern architecture to the= sidewalk energy of Vietnam’s cities.

我最近在香港生活了六年多，并走访了区内多个市场。这里的发展活力清晰可见，无论是中国的交通基础设施、新加坡的现代建筑，还是越南城市街头的蓬勃生机。

The growth story of Asia's financial wealth is well known. What is less discussed is the conversion opportunity. Much of the region’s household wealth still sits in bank deposits, real estate, and gold. But as markets deepen and savers look for long-term returns, we are beginning to see a gradual reallocation of household savings into a range of capital market investments.

亚洲金融财富的增长故事已广为人知，但较少被讨论的是将储蓄转化为投资的机遇。区内大量家庭财富仍以银行存款、房地产和黄金的形式持有。但随着资本市场不断深化，储户寻求长期回报，我们正逐步看到家庭储蓄重新配置至一系列资本市场投资。

Of course, Asia is not a single market. Each country has its own institutions, regulations, and investor needs. But rising household wealth, deepening capital markets, and thoughtful regulatory development create a common opportunity: helping households make the journey from saving to investing.

当然，亚洲并非单一市场。每个国家都有自身的制度、监管环境和投资者需求。但家庭财富增长、资本市场深化以及审慎周全的监管发展，共同带来一个机遇：帮助家庭实现从储蓄向投资的转变。

The second change related to the client evolution is that the industry is becoming wealth-led. For most of my career, institutions were the center of gravity. Today, wealth and retail assets are now growing faster and moving toward center of our industry. One Morgan Stanley estimate suggests retail could represent about 55% of global managed assets by 2030.

与客户演变相关的第二项变化，是行业正日益由财富管理业务驱动。在我职业生涯的大部分时间里，机构投资者一直是行业的重心。如今，财富管理和零售资产增长更快，并正逐步走向行业中心。摩根士丹利的一项估算显示，到2030年，零售资产可能占全球在管资产的约55%。

What I find most interesting is that the institutional and wealth worlds are converging. Individual investors increasingly expect what was once reserved for the largest institutions: portfolios diversified across public and private markets, built around outcomes, and customized to their needs.

我认为最值得关注的是，机构投资与财富管理两大领域正在融合。个人投资者日益期待获得过去仅向最大型机构提供的服务，包括横跨公开市场和私募市场的多元化投资组合、以投资成果为导向的配置，以及根据自身需求量身定制的方案。

So let me move on to the second rock: the evolution of investment products.

接下来谈谈第二块岩石：投资产品的演变。

Clients increasingly want more than a discussion about a product's attributes. They want to know what it does for their whole portfolio. How can a fixed income allocation make income more resilient? How might an infrastructure allocation protect against inflation? Where can an alternative strategy add a genuinely different source of return?

客户越来越不满足于只谈产品本身的特点。他们想知道这项产品对其整体投资组合有什么影响。固定收益配置如何使收入来源更具韧性？基础设施配置如何帮助抵御通胀？另类策略可以在哪里提供真正不同的回报来源？

Beating a benchmark still matters, but it is no longer enough. Clients expect us to organize around their portfolios and their desired outcomes — not around our product shelf.

跑赢基准依然重要，但仅此已不再足够。客户期望我们围绕其投资组合和目标成果而非我们的产品阵容来架构服务。

And the portfolio itself is changing. For more than a decade, markets rewarded concentration: in one market, one asset class, and most recently, a small group of US technology companies. In my conversations with clients today, I hear a different expectation: In an environment marked by higher volatility, dispersion, and interest rates, they view diversification not just as risk insurance but as a source of return.

投资组合本身也在发生变化。十多年来，市场一直奖励集中配置，包括集中于某一市场、某一资产类别，以及不久前的集中于少数几家美国科技公司。但如今，在与客户的交流中，我听到的是另一种期待：在波动性、分化程度和利率升高的环境下，他们认为多元化不仅是风险保障，也是回报来源。

There is a traditional Chinese saying that captures this better than any textbook: 狡兔三窟, the clever rabbit has three burrows. In investment terms, the lesson is clear: a portfolio should not depend on a single path. That wisdom is centuries old, and it has never been more relevant to portfolio construction.

中国的成语狡兔三窟用在这里非常贴切，聪明的兔子有三个藏身之处。就投资而言，道理很清晰：投资组合不应只依赖一条路径。这一智慧流传数百年，而对于今天的投资组合构建而言，比以往任何时候都更具有现实意义。

This means diversifying by geography, by asset class, and by return stream. It is not only about adding more assets. It is about combining exposures that behave differently. For example, certain strategies, including carefully selected hedge fund strategies, aim to reduce dependence on the direction of broad markets, making them a genuine diversifier when stocks and bonds move together, as they have more often in recent years.

这需要在地域、资产类别和回报来源方面进行多元化配置。不只是增加更多资产，还要融会具有不同行为特征的仓位。例如，某些策略，包括经过审慎筛选的对冲基金策略，旨在降低对整体市场方向的依赖，在近年来更为常见的股债同向波动发生时可发挥真正的分散风险作用。

The third rock is the shift in market structure and the rise of private markets.

第三块岩石，是市场结构的转变和私募市场的兴起。

In the United States, 87% of companies with more than $100 million in revenue are private, and the number of public companies has roughly halved over two decades. Companies increasingly choose between public and private capital according to their needs, and many stay private longer. An investor focused only on public markets is looking through a smaller and smaller window of the real economy.

在美国，年收入超过1亿美元的企业中，有87%为非上市企业；过去二十年间，上市公司数量约减少了一半。企业越来越多地根据自身需求在公开和私募资本之间进行选择，保持未上市状态时间延长的企业不在少数。只关注公开市场的投资者，其用于感知实体经济的窗口正变得越来越小。

The trend may vary somewhat from market to market, but the broader lesson is relevant globally: Investors need the ability to evaluate opportunities across public and private markets — and across the full capital structure.

这一趋势在不同市场可能有所差异，但其更广泛的启示在全球都适用：投资者需要具备评估涵盖公开市场和私募市场以及整个资本结构的机会的能力。

This is changing how investment edge is defined. In the old model, a manager was either a public-markets specialist or a private-markets specialist. Increasingly, the advantage goes to managers who can see the whole capital structure and allocate to wherever value sits at a given time.

这正在改变投资优势的定义。在过去的模式中，管理人要么专注于公开市场，要么专注于私募市场。如今，能够纵观整个资本结构，并在特定时点将资金配置到最具价值领域的管理人，正日益占据优势。

At Wellington, our private placements team recently invested in a global coffee, cocoa, and cotton supplier. They drew on our equity analysts for insight into the consumer brands that buy those products, our commodities team on crop pricing, and our climate team on water risks that could affect credit quality. By combining those perspectives, they got a fuller picture and structured a stronger investment for our clients.

威灵顿的私募团队最近投资了一家全球性咖啡、可可和棉花供应商。他们通过我们的股票分析师深入了解采购这些商品的消费品牌，向大宗商品团队获取农作物定价方面的见解，并由气候团队评估可能影响信用质量的水资源风险。通过融会这些不同视角，团队形成了更为完整的判断，为客户构建了更具优势的投资。

New structures are also now bringing private market exposures, long a core part of institutional portfolios, to the wealth and retail market. Done thoughtfully, with a clear understanding of the risks, that is a meaningful step toward better diversification and long-term outcomes.

新的产品结构也正在将长期以来一直是机构投资组合核心部分的私募市场仓位引入财富管理和零售市场。在对风险有清晰认识的情况下，如果以审慎的方式推进，这将是朝着改善多元化和长期投资成果迈出的重要一步。

And the fourth rock is the growing role of strategic partnerships.

第四块岩石，是战略合作伙伴关系日益重要。

Asset owners are doing more with fewer managers. In response, asset managers must deliver the whole firm, not just a product.

资产所有者对于管理人更为精挑细选，将多种类别委托管理集中在少而精的管理人那里。因此，资产管理人必须举全公司之力，而并不仅仅是提供某一项产品。

Let me give an example. Early in my career, we developed a relationship with a large US public fund. It began with sharing market and product insights, but over time the conversation expanded into alternatives education, talent development, geopolitical developments, and most importantly, risk management. The client had a sophisticated risk system and team but leadership needed a clearer way to interpret the result. We helped them turn a dense data pack into a more accessible eight-page report. That work built trust and ultimately led to a significant mandate. We succeeded by solving the client’s problem, not by selling a product.

让我举一个例子。职业生涯早期，我们与一家大型美国公共基金建立了合作关系。最初，双方只是分享市场和产品见解，但随着时间推移，交流范围逐步扩展到另类投资教育、人才发展、地缘政治变化，以及最重要的风险管理。该客户拥有成熟的风险系统和专业团队，但管理层需要更清晰的方式来解读分析结果。我们帮助他们将一个密集的数据包转化为一份更容易理解的八页报告。这项工作建立了信任，并最终带来了一项大额投资委托。我们的成功是靠解决客户的问题，而不是靠销售产品。

Again, the circumstances may vary by market, but the ingredients of the strongest partnerships are universal. They should be built on trust and transparency, shared responsibility for success, a long-term focus, and common values including integrity, excellence, and a focus on the client's outcome.

同样，具体情况可能因市场而异，但最牢固的合作伙伴关系具有相同的要素：以信任和透明度为基础，共同承担成功的责任，着眼长期，并秉持共同价值观，包括诚信、卓越以及专注于客户成果。

Local clients also need to know that a global firm is genuinely committed to the region: hiring locally, sharing knowledge, contributing to the investment ecosystem.

对于当地的客户来说，他们还需要知道这家全球性机构是真正致力于这一地区，包括在当地招募人才、分享知识，以及为投资生态系统添砖加瓦。

That commitment is especially important in Asia. It is the foundation of the most important word in our industry: trust.

这种承诺在亚洲尤为重要。它是我们行业最重要的一个词汇——信任——的基础。

Finally, there is a powerful current running across all four of these rocks.

最后，还有一股强大的水流穿过这四块岩石。

It’s technology, and it is moving faster than ever. Technology has long been critical in our industry: in trading, risk management, operations, and client service. Now, however, two technologies are becoming particularly important: artificial intelligence and tokenization.

那就是科技，而且其发展速度比以往任何时候都更快。长期以来，科技在交易、风险管理、运营和客户服务等方面一直对我们行业至关重要。但现在，有两项技术正变得尤为重要：人工智能和代币化。

They are usually discussed in different rooms: AI in the context of productivity and research, tokenization in the context of market infrastructure. But their strategic significance is related. Put simply, AI can reduce the time and cost of processing information. Tokenization can reduce the time and cost of moving capital.

它们通常在不同场合被提及：人工智能往往与生产力和研究有关，而代币化则与市场基础设施联系在一起。但二者的战略意义彼此相关。简单来说，人工智能可以减少处理信息所需的时间和成本，而代币化可以降低资本流动所需的时间和成本。

For asset managers, AI will improve operational efficiency and strengthen the investment process. Used responsibly, it can give every analyst a better starting point.

对资产管理人而言，人工智能将提升运营效率并强化投资流程。如果以负责任的方式使用，它可以为每位分析师提供更好的研究起点。

For its part, tokenization does not create new economic exposures, nor does it make inherently illiquid assets liquid. But with the right standards and safeguards, it could make assets easier to issue, divide, transfer, report, and reconcile. The appeal may be especially strong in private markets and in regions like Asia, where delivering funds across varied regulatory frameworks brings real challenges.

代币化本身不会创造新的经济敞口，也不会让原本缺乏流动性的资产自动变得具有流动性。但在适当的标准和保障机制下，它可以使资产的发行、分割、转移、报告和核对变得更加容易。其吸引力在私募市场以及亚洲等地区可能尤为突出，因为在不同监管框架调拨资金确实困难较大。

The two technologies may come together most clearly in the rise of the individual investor. A wealth-led industry needs personalization at scale. AI can help design and service that personalization. Tokenization, through its embedded smart contracts, can store and execute it, while opening access and making administration more efficient. In short, AI enables customization at scale; tokenization delivers it.

这两项技术最明显的交汇点，可能体现在个人投资者的崛起上。由财富管理主导的行业需要成规模的个性化服务。人工智能可以帮助设计并支持这种个性化服务；代币化则可以通过内嵌的智能合约储存并执行相关安排，同时扩大投资渠道并提高管理效率。简而言之，人工智能让规模化定制成为可能，代币化则将其落地。

So those are the rocks of structural change we’re seeing: an industry that is more global, more responsive to the needs of both individual and institutional investors, more focused on outcome-oriented solutions that draw on the full opportunity set, and more committed to deep, long-term partnerships — all propelled by technology at an accelerating pace.

以上就是我们所看到的结构性变革之“石”：行业更加全球化，更积极响应个人和机构投资者的需求，更专注于利用完整机会集提供以成果为导向的解决方案，也更加重视深度、长期的合作伙伴关系，而这一切都由加速发展的科技所推动。

Five years from now, in an increasingly wealth-led industry, personalization may be one of the most visible changes. Customization at scale used to be a privilege reserved for the largest institutions. Over time, AI and tokenization could make it the baseline for everyone.

接下来的五年，在一个日益由财富管理主导的行业中，个性化服务或许会成为最显著的变化之一。规模化定制曾是大型机构的特权。假以时日，人工智能和代币化可能会让它成为所有投资者的基本配置。

What will not change is the primacy of trust. Clients, whether an institution or a family, will always want to know that someone is putting their interests first and thinking about the relationship for the long term.

不会改变的是信任至上。无论客户是一家机构还是一个家庭，他们始终希望确认，有人将其利益放在首位，并着眼于建立长期关系。

One of our clients, has a phrase I love: “Automate the ordinary, so you can humanize the extraordinary.” Technology will increasingly automate the ordinary. Trust is how we humanize the extraordinary.

我们的一位客户，有一句话令我非常认同：“技术将日常事务自动化，让我们得以为非凡之事注入人性化温度。”科技将越来越多地自动处理日常事务，而信任则是我们赋予非凡人性化温度的方式。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。