全球储能经济性跟踪— 2026 年 9 月

报告要点

电力现货峰谷价差是判断储能景气度变化的重要前瞻指标。我们认为，相较于储能招标、排产、装机等指标，电力现货峰谷价差更能前瞻性地反映电力系统对储能灵活性调节能力的需求。在市场化程度较高的电力市场中，峰谷价差既反映电力供需的时段性错配，也直接影响储能现货套利收益。随着电力市场化改革推进，储能投资有望逐步由政策驱动转向市场驱动，电价信号的重要性持续提升。本系列报告将定期跟踪中国各省份及海外重点市场的电力现货峰谷价差，研判全球储能经济性及区域景气度变化趋势。

2026年 9月，中国各省电力现货峰谷价差同比表现分化，部分省份独立储能项目已具备较强盈利能力。从 4 小时峰谷价差来看，山东、广东、海南、山西等省份价差相对较高，区域间差异显著。同比来看，广东、海南、辽宁等地峰谷价差有所扩大，而山东、山西、蒙西等地同比收窄，反映出各省电力供需及新能源消纳形势的差异。在100MW/400MWh 独立储能项目假设下，蒙西、辽宁、吉林、海南等地区经济性相对较好，其中蒙西在碳酸锂价格 26 万元/吨假设下IRR仍达9.8%。整体来看，各省峰谷价差及容量补偿、辅助服务等收益机制差异显著，储能投资机会有望向高收益地区集中。

2026年 9月，欧洲主要国家电力现货峰谷价差同比普遍扩大，英国近期价差显著走阔。英国、德国、意大利4小时峰谷价差分别约为81、177、107 欧元/MWh，其中德国、意大利持续维持较高水平，英国近两个月价差明显扩大，可能主要受天然气发电成本及风光出力波动等因素驱动。欧洲电力市场价格波动加剧，有望持续支撑储能现货套利收益。

2026年 9月，美国加州、德州电力现货峰谷价差同比收窄，储能套利收益面临一定压力。加州、德州4小时峰谷价差分别约为 34、45美元/MWh，均低于2025年同期。加州储能装机快速增长，对日内电价波动的平抑作用逐渐显现；德州受电力供需变化影响，价差波动较大，1月曾超过120 美元/MWh，9月已明显回落。整体来看，美国储能现货套利收益呈现区域分化，需关注价差收窄对项目经济性的影响。

电气设备

评级：看好

日期： 2026.10.23

分析师钟林志

登记编码：S0950525050001

：17378362019

：zhonglinzhi@w kzq.com.cn

风险提示

1、原材料价格大幅波动风险；

2、电力市场化改革及储能政策变动风险；

3、海外能源价格及气候波动风险；

4、模型测算假设与实际运行偏差风险。

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	行业评级	看好	预期行业整体回报高于基准指数整体水平10%以上;
		中性	预期行业整体回报介于基准指数整体水平-10%~10%之间;
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电气设备行业跟踪：全球储能经济性跟踪——2026年9月

全球储能经济性跟踪— 2026 年 9 月

报告要点

风险提示

1、原材料价格大幅波动风险；

2、电力市场化改革及储能政策变动风险；

3、海外能源价格及气候波动风险；

4、模型测算假设与实际运行偏差风险。

分析师声明

投资评级说明

一般声明

特别声明

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深圳

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电气设备行业跟踪：全球储能经济性跟踪——2026年9月

全球储能经济性跟踪— 2026 年 9 月

报告要点

风险提示

1、 原材料价格大幅波动风险；

2、 电力市场化改革及储能政策变动风险；

3、 海外能源价格及气候波动风险；

4、 模型测算假设与实际运行偏差风险。

分析师声明

投资评级说明

一般声明

特别声明

联系我们

上海

深圳

Analyst Certification

Investment Rating Definitions

General Disclaimer

Special Disclaimer

Contact us

Shanghai

Shenzhen

评论 (0)

相关文章

1、原材料价格大幅波动风险；

2、电力市场化改革及储能政策变动风险；

3、海外能源价格及气候波动风险；

4、模型测算假设与实际运行偏差风险。