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资讯 电网投资节奏跟踪— 2026 年 8 月
报告要点
电网迈入成长周期，需重点关注招标节奏变化。“十五五”期间“六张网”建设将拉动超 5 万亿元电网投资，未来五年投资 CAGR 有望超过 10%。2015-2023 年国内电网年投资额维持在 5000 亿元左右，2024-2025 年上移至6000 亿元级别，我们预计“十五五”末有望突破万亿元，电网投资将迈入新一轮成长周期。电网行业兼具竞争格局稳定的“防御”属性与稳健成长的“进攻”属性，配置价值显著。本系列报告将持续跟踪电网招标规模、投资节奏及主要企业中标份额变化，把握产业链边际变化，研判行业景气趋势与投资价值。
电网投资保持稳健增长，2026年 8月单月增速明显回升，电网与电源投资增速持续分化。2026 年1-8月，全国电网基本建设投资完成额 3932亿元，同比增长 3.6%，其中 8 月单月完成投资 592 亿元，同比增长 23.1%，较7 月明显回升；同期电源基本建设投资完成额 4916 亿元，同比下降 1.5%，其中 8 月单月同比下降 3.6%。电网投资自 2025 年以来多数时间领先于电源投资，反映出电力系统投资重心逐步向电网侧倾斜。考虑到电网投资具有明显的季节性特征，四季度有望迎来投资高峰。
主网输变电设备招标规模同比下滑，主要设备企业竞争格局整体稳定。2026年国网输变电设备前4批招标金额合计601亿元，同比下降12%，较2025年全年 26%的同比增速明显放缓。从竞争格局来看，一次设备头部企业中标份额整体稳定，二次设备龙头优势进一步巩固，国电南瑞前 4 批继保及变电监控设备中标份额达 31.1%，较 2025 年全年提升 3.7个百分点。当前主网设备招标增速与电网投资增速有所背离，后续需重点关注剩余批次招标节奏及订单释放情况。
计量设备招标规模同比回暖，新标准切换后的需求修复值得关注。2026 年国网计量设备第 1 批招标金额约 73.5 亿元，同比增长6%，较 2025年全年52%的同比降幅明显改善。2025 年招标规模大幅下滑，主要受 2024年高基数、采购节奏调整及智能电表新旧标准切换影响，部分采购需求延后释放。从竞争格局来看，计量设备市场集中度较低，头部企业中标份额整体稳定。随着新标准电表逐步推广及前期延后需求释放，计量设备招标规模有望逐步修复。
电气设备
评级： 看好
日期： 2026.10.29
分析师钟林志
登记编码：S0950525050001
：17378362019
：zhonglinzhi@w kzq.com.cn
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风险提示： 1、电网设备招标规模不及预期风险；2、电网项目建设进度不及预期风险；3、行业竞争加剧风险；4、原材料价格波动风险。
电网投资保持稳健增长，电源投资延续负增长态势，电网与电源投资增速持续分化。2026年1-8月，全国电网基本建设投资完成额3932亿元，同比增长 3.6%；其中 8月单月完成投资592亿元，同比增长23.1%，较7 月明显回升，反映出电网投资节奏有所加快。从历史季节性规律来看，电网投资通常呈现年末集中放量的特征，四季度有望迎来投资高峰。相比之下，电源侧投资表现相对疲弱，2026 年1-8 月全国电源基本建设投资完成额 4916 亿元，同比下降1.5%；其中8月单月完成投资679 亿元，同比下降 3.6%，延续年内负增长态势。整体来看，电网投资增速自 2025 年以来多数时间领先于电源投资，反映出电力系统投资重心正逐步向电网侧倾斜。随着新能源装机规模持续扩大，电网消纳能力、跨区域输电及系统调节能力的重要性不断提升，我们预计电网投资有望维持较高景气度。
2026年主网输变电招标规模同比有所下滑，主要设备企业中标格局整体稳定。2026年国网输变电设备前 4 批招标金额合计 601 亿元，同比下降 12%，较 2025 年全年 26%的同比增速明显放缓，反映出主网设备招标节奏阶段性偏弱。从竞争格局来看，组合电器、变压器等一次设备市场格局整体稳定，头部企业仍占据较高市场份额；二次设备方面，国电南瑞 2026年前 4 批中标份额达 31.1%，较 2025 年全年提升 3.7 个百分点，龙头地位进一步巩固。整体来看，主网设备招标金额与电网实际投资增速出现一定背离，考虑到招标向设备交付及投资完成的传导存在一定时滞，短期招标波动尚不能直接代表全年电网投资趋势，后续需重点关注国网剩余批次招标规模及主网设备订单释放节奏。
图表 7：输变电招标-组合电器中标格局变化
| 平高电气 | 中国西电 | 思源电气 | 泰开集团 | 长高电新 | 山东电工 | |
| 2023[1] | 25.3% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% |
| 2023[2] | 25.5% | 15.9% | 15.1% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% |
| 2023[3] | 6.1% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 14.9% | 6.2% | 1.0% |
| 2023[4] | 23.3% | 18.5% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| 2023[5] | 24.8% | 16.8% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| 2023[6] | 18.7% | 22.0% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% |
| 2023 合计 | 20.8% | 16.8% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 2024[1] | 20.7% | 18.1% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% |
| 2024[2] | 16.7% | 21.3% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| 2024[3] | 24.0% | 20.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% |
| 2024[4] | 18.4% | 20.8% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024[5] | 12.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% |
| 2024[6] | 11.3% | 11.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% |
| 2024 合计 | 18.1% | 17.0% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
| 2025[1] | 25.5% | 23.4% | 14.6% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| 2025[2] | 32.7% | 15.7% | 18.6% | 7.2% | 1.6% | 6.1% |
| 2025[3] | 21.6% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 13.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% |
| 2025[4] | 26.0% | 23.9% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 5.6% | 3.4% |
| 2025[5] | 22.3% | 22.1% | 17.0% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% |
| 2025[6] | 16.5% | 24.1% | 26.5% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% |
| 2025 合计 | 24.1% | 20.4% | 17.3% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| 2026[1] | 24.8% | 18.7% | 23.7% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| 2026[2] | 20.6% | 21.5% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% |
| 2026[3] | 15.9% | 15.9% | 17.3% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% |
| 2026[4] | 23.6% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 13.3% | 6.3% | 3.7% |
| 2026YTD | 20.4% | 17.6% | 16.3% | 12.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% |
资料来源：国网电子商务平台 五矿证券研究所
图表 8：输变电招标-变压器中标格局变化
| 特变电工 | 山东电工 | 中国西电 | 保变电气 | 泰开集团 | 正泰集团 | |
| 2023[1] | 14.4% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| 2023[2] | 14.7% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% |
| 2023[3] | 14.1% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
| 2023[4] | 18.9% | 16.0% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| 2023[5] | 1.4% | 16.0% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 7.7% |
| 2023[6] | 21.4% | 10.7% | 14.7% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% |
| 2023 合计 | 14.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% |
| 2024[1] | 7.8% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% |
| 2024[2] | 12.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| 2024[3] | 16.7% | 14.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
| 2024[4] | 24.1% | 0.0% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024[5] | 13.8% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024[6] | 12.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 1.3% |
| 2024 合计 | 14.7% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% |
| 2025[1] | 30.4% | 22.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% |
| 2025[2] | 23.8% | 18.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| 2025[3] | 24.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| 2025[4] | 15.6% | 17.5% | 14.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% |
| 2025[5] | 14.5% | 18.4% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| 2025[6] | 22.4% | 18.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 3.1% |
| 2025 合计 | 22.9% | 17.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 2026[1] | 19.4% | 9.0% | 19.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% |
| 2026[2] | 15.1% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% |
| 2026[3] | 13.0% | 16.3% | 17.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% |
| 2026[4] | 17.9% | 21.4% | 12.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% |
| 2026YTD | 15.8% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
资料来源：国网电子商务平台ECP, 五矿证券研究所
图表 9：输变电招标-继保及变电监控中标格局变化
| 国电南瑞 | 四方股份 | 国电南自 | 许继电气 | 思源电气 | 东方电子 | |
| 2023[1] | 35.1% | 18.5% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 1.2% |
| 2023[2] | 38.8% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 0.4% |
| 2023[3] | 37.5% | 14.8% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 0.5% |
| 2023[4] | 31.8% | 15.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% |
| 2023[5] | 31.2% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% |
| 2023[6] | 23.9% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 5.4% |
| 2023 合计 | 35.0% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
| 2024[1] | 31.5% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 6.1% | 0.8% | 5.5% |
| 2024[2] | 33.3% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| 2024[3] | 33.9% | 15.3% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 4.1% |
| 2024[4] | 17.2% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% |
| 2024[5] | 28.2% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| 2024[6] | 21.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% |
| 2024 合计 | 28.7% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% |
| 2025[1] | 24.1% | 14.8% | 5.5% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% |
| 2025[2] | 34.8% | 15.4% | 5.5% | 12.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% |
| 2025[3] | 18.3% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.0% |
| 2025[4] | 32.9% | 14.9% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 5.8% |
| 2025[5] | 29.9% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 9.2% |
| 2025[6] | 29.8% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 6.6% | 13.4% | 4.4% |
| 2025 合计 | 27.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 4.9% |
| 2026[1] | 31.4% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| 2026[2] | 30.8% | 15.4% | 6.2% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% |
| 2026[3] | 32.1% | 16.3% | 13.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 4.6% |
| 2026[4] | 30.1% | 15.3% | 11.4% | 18.7% | 9.3% | 4.0% |
| 2026YTD | 31.1% | 15.3% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
资料来源：国网电子商务平台ECP, 五矿证券研究所
2026 年国网电表第 1 批招标同比回暖，市场竞争格局整体稳定。2026 年国网计量设备第批招标金额约73.5亿元，同比增长6%，较 2025年全年52%的同比降幅明显改善。2025 年招标金额大幅下滑，主要系两方面原因：一是 2024 年智能电表招标规模处于高位，形成较高基数，叠加2025年采购节奏调整，招标需求有所回落；二是智能电表新旧技术标准切换，2025年第3批电能表招标因采用新标准出现流标，部分采购需求延后至 2026年释放，同时电表中标价格下降进一步拖累招标金额。从竞争格局来看，计量设备市场集中度较低，头部企业中标份额普遍处于2%—5%区间，整体格局相对稳定。展望后续，随着新标准电表逐步推广及前期延后需求释放，计量设备招标规模有望逐步修复。
图表 11：计量设备招标-电能表中标格局变化
| 许继电气 | 国电南瑞 | 威胜控股 | 三星医疗 | 东方电子 | 林洋能源 | 万胜智能 | 炬华科技 | 海兴电力 | 正泰集团 | |
| 2023[1] | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| 2023[2] | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| 2023 合计 | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| 2024[1] | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| 2024[2] | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% |
| 2024[3] | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| 2024 合计 | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| 2025[1] | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| 2025[2] | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| 2025 合计 | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% |
| 2026[1] | 5.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 2.3% |
| 2026YTD | 5.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 2.3% |
资料来源：国网电子商务平台ECP, 五矿证券研究所
风险提示
1、 电网设备招标规模不及预期风险；
2、 电网项目建设进度不及预期风险；
3、 行业竞争加剧风险；
4、 原材料价格波动风险。
分析师声明
作者在中国证券业协会登记为证券投资咨询(分析师)，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。作者保证：（i）本报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道；（ii）本报告分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，并清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点；（iii）本报告结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响；（iv）不存在任何利益冲突；（v）英文版翻译若与中文版有所歧义，以中文版报告为准；特此声明。
投资评级说明
| 投资建议的评级标准报告中投资建议所涉及的评级分为股票评级和行业评级(另有说明的除外)。评级标准为报告发布日后6到12个月内的相对市场表现,也即:以报告发布日后的6到12个月内的公司股价(或行业指数)相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的涨跌幅作为基准。其中:A股市场以沪深300指数为基准;香港市场以恒生指数为基准;美国市场以纳斯达克综合指数或标普500指数为基准。 | 评级 | 说明 | |
| 股票评级 | 买入 | 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报在20%及以上; | |
| 增持 | 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报介于5%~20%之间; | ||
| 持有 | 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报介于-10%~5%之间; | ||
| 卖出 | 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报在-10%及以下; | ||
| 无评级 | 预期对于个股未来6个月市场表现与基准指数相比无明确观点。 | ||
| 行业评级 | 看好 | 预期行业整体回报高于基准指数整体水平10%以上; | |
| 中性 | 预期行业整体回报介于基准指数整体水平-10%~10%之间; | ||
| 看淡 | 预期行业整体回报低于基准指数整体水平-10%以下。 |
一般声明
五矿证券有限公司（以下简称“本公司”）具有中国证监会批复的证券投资咨询业务资格。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告即视其为客户，本报告仅在相关法律许可的情况下发放，并仅为提供信息而发放，概不构成任何广告。本报告的版权仅为本公司所有，未经本公司书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式对本研究报告的任何部分以任何方式制作任何形式的翻版、复制或再次分发给任何其他人。如引用须联络五矿证券研究所获得许可后，再注明出处为五矿证券研究所，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。在刊载或者转发本证券研究报告或者摘要的同时，也应注明本报告的发布人和发布日期及提示使用证券研究报告的风险。若未经授权刊载或者转发本报告的，本公司将保留向其追究法律责任的权利。若本公司以外的其他机构（以下简称“该机构”）发送本报告，则由该机构独自为此发送行为负责。
本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的证券或投资标的的价格、价值及投资收入或将产生波动；在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告；本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。同时，本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。
本报告的作者是基于独立、客观、公正和审慎的原则制作本研究报告。本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含信息和建议不发生任何变更。本公司已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不包含作者对证券价格涨跌或市场走势的确定性判断。在任何情况下，报告中的信息或意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。在任何情况下，本公司、本公司员工或者关联机构不承诺投资者一定获利，不与投资者分享投资收益，也不对任何人因使用本报告由的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。本公司及作者在自身所知情范围内，与本报告中所评价或推荐的证券不存在法律法规要求披露或采取限制、静默措施的利益冲突。
五矿证券版权所有。保留一切权利。
特别声明
在法律许可的情况下，五矿证券可能会持有本报告中提及公司所发行的证券并进行交易，也可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。因此，投资者应当考虑到五矿证券及/或其相关人员可能存在影响本报告观点客观性的潜在利益冲突，投资者请勿将本报告视为投资或其他决定的唯一参考依据。
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The research analyst is primarily responsible for the content of this report, in w hole or in part. The analyst has the Securities Investment Advisory Certification granted by the Securities Association of China. Besides, the analyst independently and objectively issues this report holding a diligent attitude. We hereby declare that (1) all the data used herein is gathered fromlegitimate sources: (2) the research is based on analyst's professiona understanding, and accurately reflects his/her views; (3) the analyst has not been placed under any undue influence or intervention from a third party in compiling this report; (4) there is no conf lict of interest; (5) in case of ambiguity due to the translation of the report, the original version in Chinese shall prevail.
Investment Rating Definitions
| The rating criteria of investment recommendationsThe ratings contained herein are classified into company ratings and sector ratings (unless otherwise stated). The rating criteria is the relative market performance between 6 and 12 months after the report's date of issue, i.e. based on the range of rise and fall of the company's stock price (or industry index) compared to the benchmark index. Specifically, the CSI 300 Index is the benchmark index of the A-share market. The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index of the HK market. The NASDAQ Composite Index or the S&P 500 Index is the benchmark index of the U.S. market. | Ratings | Definitions | |
| Company Ratings | BUY | Stock return is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20%; | |
| ACCUMULATE | Stock relative performance is expected to range between 5% and 20%; | ||
| HOLD | Stock relative performance is expected to range between -10% and 5%; | ||
| SELL | Stock return is expected to underperform the benchmark index by more than 10%; | ||
| NOT RATED | No clear view of the stock relative performance over the next 6 months. | ||
| Sector Ratings | POSITIVE | Overall sector return is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10%; | |
| NEUTRAL | Overall sector expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%; | ||
| CAUTIOUS | Overall sector return is expected to underperform the benchmark index by more than 10%. |
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