强于大市 |维持
行业基本情况
收盘点位 4289.79
52 周最高 4407.1
52周最低 3669.57
行业相对指数表现(相对值)
研究所
分析师:张银新
SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001
Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com
近期研究报告
《信贷需求偏弱,直接融资支撑》 -2026.11.03
银行业三季报综述:业绩增速回升,息差持稳、非息改善
l 投资要点:
(1)业绩增速回升,国有行表现领先:2026 年前三季度,上市银行总体营业收入、拨备前利润、归母净利润同比分别增长7.81%、10.96%、3.78%,较上半年增长加速。国有行盈利增长提速,城商行盈利增速有所回落,股份行延续分化、归母净利润增速稍显承压。
(2)生息资产增速放缓,债券投资占比继续提升:2026年三季度末,上市银行生息资产同比增长 7.52%,较上半年末回落 0.16 个百分点;其中,贷款及垫款同比增长 6.42%,小幅回落0.19 个百分点。债券投资余额同比增长 11.89%,占生息资产比重升至 33.21%,较上半年末提高0.20个百分点,资产配置向债券投资进一步小幅倾斜。
(3)资负利率同步下行,净息差总体持稳:2026 年前三季度上市银行净息差测算值为1.35%,较上半年微降0.03BP;生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率分别为 2.60%、1.35%,较上半年下降 1.55BP、1.53BP,两端利率降幅接近。分类型来看,股份行、城商行净息差较上半年分别提高0.36BP、0.47BP,国有行、农商行则小幅下降。
(4)非息收入增长提速,其他非息与手续费表现分化:2026年前三季度,上市银行非息收入同比增长6.45%,较上半年提高1.24个百分点;净手续费收入同比下降1.65%,其他非息收入累计同比增长13.76%,后者成为非息收入改善的主要来源。股份行非息收入增速大幅回升,城商行、农商行累计降幅收窄,三季度单季均恢复正增长。
(5)不良率总体稳定,信用成本与拨备表现小幅波动:2026年三季度末,上市银行总体不良贷款率为 1.22%,总体保持稳定;拨备覆盖率为 228.66%,较上半年末下降 4.33 个百分点,各类型银行拨备覆盖率均较上半年末有所回落,城、农商行拨备覆盖率仍相对较高;三季度信用成本测算值为 0.17%,环比下降 7.43BP、同比提高2.59BP。
l 投资建议:
当前上市银行营收与盈利增速有所回升、净息差总体企稳、非息收入改善,但银行间资产质量表现有所分化。建议兼顾资产质量与股息回报。
投资方向上:一是建议关注地产及建筑产业链风险敞口相对较小的银行:江苏银行、南京银行、成都银行等。二是建议关注资产质量夯实、不良生成改善的银行:建设银行、平安银行等。
l 风险提示:
模型测算误差,假设与实际偏离,政策落地不及预期,外部事件超预期恶化,不良资产大面积暴露。
目录
1 营收与利润增速回升,国有行业绩表现领先....4
2 生息资产增速放缓,债券投资占比继续提升....9
3 资负利率同步下行,净息差总体持稳....12
4 非息收入增长提速,其他非息与手续费表现分化....15
5 不良率总体稳定,信用成本与拨备表现小幅波动....18
6 投资建议....21
7 风险提示....22
图表目录
图表1:上市银行营收、拨备前利润、归母净利润增速……5
图表2:上市银行各板块业绩增速……6
图表3:上市银行各板块单季度业绩增速……7
图表4:上市银行业绩拆分……8
图表5:国有银行业绩拆分……9
图表6:股份制银行业绩拆分……9
图表7:城商行业绩拆分……9
图表8:农商行业绩拆分……9
图表9:上市银行生息资产同比增速……10
图表10:上市银行各板块生息资产分项增速及结构变化(单位:亿元)……11
图表11:上市银行各板块计息负债分项增速及结构变化(单位:亿元)……12
图表12:上市银行各板块净息差、净利差、生息资产收益率及计息负债成本率情况……13
图表13:上市银行息差情况表……13
图表14:上市银行非利息收入业绩表现……15
图表15:上市银行各板块单季度其他非息收入增速与十年期国开债收益率对比……16
图表16:上市银行投资和公允价值表现……16
图表17:上市银行不良贷款率、不良贷款余额变化(单位:亿元)……18
图表18:上市银行信用成本表现……20
图表19:上市银行拨备覆盖率表现……21
图表20:26Q3上市银行主要指标表现……21
1 营收与利润增速回升,国有行业绩表现领先
2026 年前三季度,上市银行总体营业收入、拨备前利润、归母净利润分别为 46,577.14亿元、32,071.33 亿元、17,467.90亿元,同比分别增长7.81%、10.96%、3.78%,增速较上半年分别提高0.39、1.13、0.82个百分点。行业营收保持稳健增长、拨备前利润增速进一步提升、归母净利润增速结构性修复。整体来看,收入增长、费用管理与盈利表现均呈现一定改善,行业经营增长的稳定性有所增强。但归母净利润增速仍低于营收及拨备前利润,收入端改善向利润端的传导仍存在一定差异;单季度来看,三季度上市银行营业收入、拨备前利润、归母净利润分别同比增长 8.62%、13.50%、5.34%,增速较二季度分别提高 1.39、3.67、2.41个百分点,三项指标均高于前三季度累计增速。
分银行类型来看,前三季度国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行营业收入同比分别增长 9.44%、3.80%、8.82%、3.16%,拨备前利润同比分别增长 13.39%、5.42%、11.96%、5.32%,四类银行两项指标增速均较上半年提高。归母净利润同比增速分别为 6.14%、-2.80%、4.48%、3.85%,较上半年分别变化+1.74、-0.24、-2.77、+0.01个百分点。国有行收入与盈利增长相对协调,归母净利润增速居四类银行首位;股份行归母净利润表现仍有调整;城商行营收及拨备前利润增长提速,归母净利润增速则有所回落;农商行盈利增长整体平稳。
三季度单季,国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行归母净利润同比增速分别为9.18%、-3.31%、-1.73%、3.87%。国有行增速较二季度提高 3.99 个百分点,股份行降幅收窄1.97个百分点,农商行与二季度基本持平。城商行营业收入、拨备前利润单季分别增长10.35%、14.74%,归母净利润则由二季度增长7.16%转为下降1.73%,板块收入与盈利表现之间的差异有所扩大。国有行盈利增长提速,对行业整体业绩改善形成较强支撑。
从个股层面来看,42家上市银行中,前三季度营业收入、拨备前利润、归母净利润实现正增长的分别为 37家、36 家、34 家,较上半年分别增加 1家、持平、减少2家;归母净利润增速超过10%的共有4 家,分别为青岛银行、齐鲁银行、宁波银行、重庆银行,增速分别为 15.67%、12.47%、12.05%、11.06%。六家国有行归母净利润均实现正增长,板块整体增长较为稳健。
图表1:上市银行营收、拨备前利润、归母净利润增速
| 证券名称 | 营业收入 | 拨备前利润 | 归母净利润 | ||||||||||||
| 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 | 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 | 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 | |
| 农业银行 | 2.08% | 10.49% | 11.07% | 12.33% | 1.27 | 0.13% | 13.12% | 13.11% | 15.00% | 1.89 | 3.18% | 4.52% | 4.93% | 7.10% | 2.18 |
| 交通银行 | 2.02% | 4.89% | 6.73% | 8.02% | 1.29 | 1.60% | 9.86% | 10.93% | 13.95% | 3.02 | 2.18% | 3.11% | 4.04% | 6.10% | 2.06 |
| 工商银行 | 2.00% | 8.27% | 9.08% | 8.74% | -0.34 | 1.97% | 9.35% | 11.28% | 11.20% | -0.08 | 0.74% | 3.31% | 3.32% | 5.83% | 2.51 |
| 建设银行 | 1.45% | 11.15% | 10.72% | 11.37% | 0.65 | 1.70% | 13.51% | 13.07% | 14.87% | 1.81 | 0.99% | 3.53% | 4.62% | 6.55% | 1.93 |
| 中国银行 | 4.48% | 8.44% | 8.48% | 7.16% | -1.32 | 1.68% | 7.06% | 9.73% | 11.52% | 1.80 | 2.18% | 4.17% | 5.10% | 5.53% | 0.42 |
| 平安银行 | -10.40% | 4.65% | 1.78% | 2.42% | 0.64 | -11.94% | 4.38% | 2.73% | 3.06% | 0.33 | -4.21% | 3.03% | 3.32% | 2.21% | -1.11 |
| 浦发银行 | 1.88% | 1.42% | 3.55% | 4.42% | 0.87 | 1.21% | 4.11% | 7.53% | 5.66% | -1.88 | 10.52% | 1.49% | 4.08% | 4.52% | 0.43 |
| 华夏银行 | -5.39% | 35.33% | 12.71% | 18.50% | 5.79 | -7.86% | 48.21% | 18.93% | 27.18% | 8.26 | -1.72% | -1.50% | -18.35% | -18.02% | 0.33 |
| 民生银行 | 4.82% | 2.74% | 3.84% | 1.88% | -1.96 | 8.68% | 6.38% | 6.42% | 3.64% | -2.79 | -5.37% | -9.64% | -8.62% | -14.78% | -6.16 |
| 招商银行 | 0.01% | 3.81% | 4.83% | 5.34% | 0.51 | -0.32% | 4.29% | 5.63% | 6.37% | 0.74 | 1.21% | 1.52% | 2.02% | 2.38% | 0.35 |
| 兴业银行 | 0.24% | -1.06% | -0.25% | 0.22% | 0.47 | 0.19% | -0.25% | 0.25% | 0.66% | 0.40 | 0.34% | 0.15% | -4.66% | -3.79% | 0.87 |
| 光大银行 | -6.72% | -3.85% | -4.32% | 0.29% | 4.61 | -6.43% | -1.82% | -3.21% | 2.75% | 5.96 | -6.88% | -8.06% | -24.01% | -23.63% | 0.38 |
| 浙商银行 | -7.59% | 0.50% | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.12 | -11.50% | 1.53% | 0.63% | -1.94% | -2.57 | -14.85% | 0.72% | 2.05% | 0.96% | -1.09 |
| 中信银行 | -0.55% | 5.56% | 3.45% | 3.86% | 0.41 | 0.17% | 6.38% | 5.43% | 6.98% | 1.56 | 2.98% | 3.02% | 3.08% | 3.56% | 0.48 |
| 兰州银行 | -0.75% | -0.20% | 6.60% | 6.47% | -0.13 | -1.01% | 1.90% | 10.96% | 11.02% | 0.06 | -1.22% | -4.79% | -8.95% | -10.03% | -1.08 |
| 宁波银行 | 8.01% | 10.21% | 11.54% | 11.34% | -0.20 | 13.05% | 15.35% | 16.91% | 16.61% | -0.30 | 8.13% | 10.30% | 12.12% | 12.05% | -0.07 |
| 郑州银行 | 0.34% | 1.31% | 1.04% | 3.26% | 2.22 | 2.36% | 5.80% | 2.75% | 6.43% | 3.68 | 1.03% | 5.37% | 3.03% | 5.21% | 2.18 |
| 青岛银行 | 7.97% | 7.30% | 9.15% | 15.00% | 5.85 | 14.64% | 9.62% | 10.49% | 18.41% | 7.92 | 21.66% | 21.16% | 18.08% | 15.67% | -2.41 |
| 苏州银行 | 1.08% | 10.94% | 13.08% | 12.81% | -0.27 | 3.75% | 16.70% | 19.12% | 18.09% | -1.02 | 5.53% | 8.23% | 8.51% | 8.13% | -0.38 |
| 江苏银行 | 8.82% | 8.41% | 9.11% | 13.24% | 4.13 | 5.91% | 8.70% | 11.85% | 16.19% | 4.34 | 8.35% | 8.20% | 8.09% | 8.21% | 0.12 |
| 杭州银行 | 1.09% | 4.29% | 4.75% | 5.50% | 0.75 | 0.11% | 6.43% | 6.35% | 7.50% | 1.15 | 12.05% | 10.09% | 9.87% | 9.76% | -0.11 |
| 西安银行 | 21.68% | 41.54% | 8.77% | 9.69% | 0.92 | 27.36% | 53.51% | 11.80% | 13.22% | 1.42 | 3.57% | 6.16% | 2.14% | 7.93% | 5.79 |
| 南京银行 | 10.48% | 13.54% | 10.94% | 12.49% | 1.55 | 13.45% | 18.39% | 14.49% | 18.51% | 4.02 | 8.08% | 8.05% | 8.17% | 8.03% | -0.14 |
| 北京银行 | -2.69% | 14.43% | 5.60% | 6.26% | 0.65 | -5.32% | 23.53% | 8.85% | 10.39% | 1.54 | -22.24% | 5.55% | 5.63% | 6.10% | 0.47 |
| 厦门银行 | 1.75% | 25.05% | 19.60% | 18.24% | -1.36 | 2.50% | 32.58% | 24.16% | 21.44% | -2.72 | 1.55% | 7.42% | 7.31% | 3.82% | -3.49 |
| 上海银行 | 3.35% | 4.25% | 5.48% | -1.29% | -6.77 | 4.48% | 4.60% | 6.36% | -1.80% | -8.16 | 2.69% | 0.66% | 0.51% | -24.49% | -25.00 |
| 长沙银行 | -1.79% | 5.64% | 4.01% | 3.28% | -0.73 | -0.83% | 6.10% | 5.85% | 5.65% | -0.19 | 3.59% | 5.77% | 5.06% | 5.40% | 0.35 |
| 齐鲁银行 | 5.12% | 13.02% | 10.55% | 9.01% | -1.54 | 3.89% | 13.89% | 10.47% | 8.29% | -2.18 | 14.58% | 14.01% | 16.06% | 12.47% | -3.59 |
| 成都银行 | 2.70% | 6.54% | 4.13% | 9.84% | 5.71 | 3.28% | 6.80% | 4.71% | 12.71% | 8.00 | 3.31% | 4.81% | 4.35% | 4.48% | 0.13 |
| 重庆银行 | 10.48% | 11.57% | 10.79% | 10.61% | -0.18 | 10.70% | 12.72% | 10.16% | 10.47% | 0.31 | 10.49% | 10.40% | 10.29% | 11.06% | 0.78 |
| 贵阳银行 | -12.94% | 14.60% | 10.87% | 12.52% | 1.65 | -19.02% | 19.10% | 12.62% | 15.24% | 2.62 | 1.66% | 2.37% | -4.61% | -10.34% | -5.73 |
| 江阴银行 | 4.11% | 8.18% | 1.98% | 5.53% | 3.55 | 5.67% | 8.99% | 1.73% | 5.84% | 4.12 | 0.62% | 2.50% | 2.34% | 3.72% | 1.38 |
| 张家港行 | 0.75% | -4.43% | -5.21% | -5.52% | -0.31 | 1.64% | 1.03% | -4.01% | -2.62% | 1.39 | 5.35% | 2.50% | 2.71% | 2.22% | -0.49 |
| 青农商行 | -9.12% | -8.69% | -7.57% | -0.99% | 6.58 | -17.11% | -12.35% | -13.92% | -3.78% | 10.14 | 9.51% | 5.60% | 2.84% | 2.51% | -0.32 |
| 无锡银行 | 1.98% | 2.60% | 3.01% | 3.25% | 0.25 | 2.21% | 3.60% | 2.61% | 3.25% | 0.64 | 2.53% | 2.73% | 2.84% | 2.51% | -0.33 |
| 渝农商行 | 1.37% | 8.39% | 7.81% | 8.47% | 0.67 | 1.90% | 12.87% | 11.59% | 10.52% | -1.06 | 5.35% | 5.07% | 6.09% | 7.86% | 1.76 |
| 常熟银行 | 6.51% | 6.74% | 6.05% | 3.81% | -2.23 | 8.69% | 9.64% | 9.98% | 8.55% | -1.43 | 10.65% | 11.10% | 10.64% | 8.02% | -2.62 |
| 瑞丰银行 | 0.53% | -3.68% | -1.96% | -0.68% | 1.29 | -1.93% | -1.74% | -3.14% | -0.96% | 2.18 | 2.30% | -0.50% | 0.94% | 1.02% | 0.07 |
| 沪农商行 | -2.89% | 1.23% | 1.82% | 2.07% | 0.25 | -2.49% | 4.57% | 3.65% | 6.36% | 2.71 | 0.20% | 0.73% | 0.87% | 1.06% | 0.19 |
| 紫金银行 | -7.72% | 2.22% | -7.94% | -2.59% | 5.35 | -10.02% | 5.73% | -8.00% | 0.95% | 8.95 | -23.35% | 1.62% | 3.33% | -4.71% | -8.04 |
| 苏农银行 | 0.92% | 1.22% | 1.00% | 0.03% | -0.97 | 0.92% | 2.72% | -1.68% | -0.83% | 0.85 | 5.05% | 5.05% | 3.02% | 2.00% | -1.01 |
| 国有行 | 2.34% | 9.04% | 9.38% | 9.44% | 0.06 | 1.71% | 11.39% | 12.19% | 13.39% | 1.20 | 1.65% | 3.63% | 4.41% | 6.14% | 1.74 |
| 股份行 | -1.68% | 3.71% | 2.85% | 3.80% | 0.95 | -2.02% | 5.39% | 4.60% | 5.42% | 0.83 | -0.07% | -0.26% | -2.56% | -2.80% | -0.24 |
| 城商行 | 4.20% | 9.72% | 8.10% | 8.82% | 0.72 | 4.53% | 12.99% | 10.68% | 11.96% | 1.28 | 3.41% | 7.35% | 7.26% | 4.48% | -2.77 |
| 农商行 | -0.65% | 2.55% | 2.03% | 3.16% | 1.14 | -1.21% | 5.03% | 3.04% | 5.32% | 2.28 | 2.97% | 3.78% | 3.84% | 3.85% | 0.01 |
| 上市银行合计 | 1.38% | 7.60% | 7.42% | 7.81% | 0.39 | 0.89% | 9.83% | 9.83% | 10.96% | 1.13 | 1.44% | 3.00% | 2.96% | 3.78% | 0.82 |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
从业绩增长构成来看,利息净收入仍为营收增长的主要来源。前三季度上市银行利息净收入同比增加2,586亿元、增长8.34%,占营业收入同比增量的76.67%。其中,城商行增速为13.53%,保持相对较快增长,国有行、农商行、股份行分别为9.49%、6.89%、3.45%,国有行增速较上半年进一步提高;上市银行非息收入同比增加 786.77亿元、增长 6.45%,占营业收入同比增量的 23.33%,较上半年20.96%有所提升。其中国有行、股份行分别增长9.30%、4.53%,城商行、农商行分别下降3.24%、7.63%。总体来看,利息业务构成行业收入增长的主要基础,非息业务增量占比有所提高;城、农商行收入增长主要体现于利息业务,国有行利息与非息业务均保持较好增长,股份行非息收入增速回升,对营收改善形成补充。
图表2:上市银行各板块业绩增速
| 项目 | 银行类型 | 24A | 25Q1 | 25H1 | 25Q1-Q3 | 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 |
| 营业收入 | 国有行 | -0.27% | -1.51% | 1.87% | 1.87% | 2.34% | 9.04% | 9.38% | 9.44% | 0.06 |
| 股份行 | -1.31% | -3.91% | -2.27% | -2.56% | -1.68% | 3.71% | 2.85% | 3.80% | 0.95 | |
| 城商行 | 6.37% | 2.96% | 5.34% | 4.78% | 4.20% | 9.72% | 8.10% | 8.82% | 0.72 | |
| 农商行 | 3.50% | 0.21% | 0.93% | -0.03% | -0.65% | 2.55% | 2.03% | 3.16% | 1.14 | |
| 上市银行 | 0.08% | -1.72% | 1.04% | 0.91% | 1.38% | 7.60% | 7.42% | 7.81% | 0.39 | |
| 利息净收入 | 国有行 | -1.58% | -3.38% | -2.42% | -1.96% | -1.47% | 7.66% | 9.00% | 9.49% | 0.49 |
| 股份行 | -4.89% | -0.53% | -1.76% | -0.86% | 0.02% | 3.52% | 4.21% | 3.45% | -0.76 | |
| 城商行 | 2.57% | 8.45% | 8.75% | 10.30% | 11.15% | 13.76% | 14.95% | 13.53% | -1.43 | |
| 农商行 | -2.80% | -0.91% | -0.56% | 0.12% | 0.86% | 7.69% | 7.67% | 6.89% | -0.78 | |
| 上市银行 | -2.10% | -1.65% | -1.29% | -0.62% | 0.00% | 7.20% | 8.35% | 8.34% | -0.02 | |
| 非息收入 | 国有行 | 4.41% | 3.76% | 14.94% | 14.10% | 15.16% | 12.67% | 10.33% | 9.30% | -1.04 |
| 股份行 | 6.86% | -10.15% | -3.24% | -5.99% | -5.14% | 4.10% | 0.23% | 4.53% | 4.30 | |
| 城商行 | 16.01% | -8.04% | -1.55% | -7.12% | -11.39% | 0.17% | -7.22% | -3.24% | 3.98 | |
| 农商行 | 29.52% | 3.18% | 4.85% | -0.45% | -5.34% | -10.49% | -12.03% | -7.63% | 4.40 | |
| 上市银行 | 6.71% | -1.87% | 7.01% | 5.02% | 5.20% | 8.57% | 5.21% | 6.45% | 1.24 | |
| 净手续费 | 国有行 | -7.87% | -1.45% | 4.69% | 5.93% | 7.15% | 6.30% | -0.26% | -2.60% | -2.34 |
| 股份行 | -12.29% | -0.89% | -0.58% | 1.30% | 3.15% | 3.84% | 3.18% | 0.39% | -2.79 | |
| 城商行 | -9.57% | 10.32% | 4.13% | 8.85% | 13.36% | 8.83% | 5.73% | -2.78% | -8.51 | |
| 农商行 | -1.24% | 4.66% | 0.95% | 3.90% | 4.24% | 10.22% | 6.74% | 4.50% | -2.24 | |
| 上市银行 | -9.38% | -0.72% | 3.06% | 4.60% | 6.13% | 5.79% | 1.08% | -1.65% | -2.73 | |
| 其他非息收入 | 国有行 | 22.93% | 12.85% | 28.83% | 23.92% | 24.19% | 22.36% | 22.00% | 21.52% | -0.47 |
| 股份行 | 29.27% | -17.82% | -5.32% | -12.07% | -11.71% | 4.36% | -2.20% | 8.52% | 10.72 | |
| 城商行 | 24.85% | -13.84% | -3.25% | -11.68% | -17.58% | -3.33% | -11.40% | -3.41% | 7.99 | |
| 农商行 | 40.51% | 2.76% | 5.85% | -1.57% | -7.75% | -16.56% | -16.63% | -10.94% | 5.68 | |
| 上市银行 | 25.76% | -3.18% | 10.76% | 5.40% | 4.41% | 11.79% | 8.86% | 13.76% | 4.90 | |
| 拨备前利润 | 国有行 | -1.70% | -2.48% | 1.98% | 1.44% | 1.71% | 11.39% | 12.19% | 13.39% | 1.20 |
| 股份行 | -1.29% | -3.88% | -2.55% | -2.87% | -2.02% | 5.39% | 4.60% | 5.42% | 0.83 | |
| 城商行 | 7.02% | 4.42% | 6.55% | 5.64% | 4.53% | 12.99% | 10.68% | 11.96% | 1.28 | |
| 农商行 | 3.32% | 1.04% | 1.30% | 0.45% | -1.21% | 5.03% | 3.04% | 5.32% | 2.28 | |
| 上市银行 | -0.70% | -2.15% | 1.14% | 0.63% | 0.89% | 9.83% | 9.83% | 10.96% | 1.13 | |
| 归母净利润 | 国有行 | 1.78% | -2.09% | -0.13% | 1.22% | 1.65% | 3.63% | 4.41% | 6.14% | 1.74 |
| 股份行 | 1.80% | -2.05% | 0.27% | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.26% | -2.56% | -2.80% | -0.24 | |
| 城商行 | 7.27% | 5.49% | 7.04% | 6.94% | 3.41% | 7.35% | 7.26% | 4.48% | -2.77 | |
| 农商行 | 5.70% | 4.77% | 4.36% | 3.60% | 2.97% | 3.78% | 3.84% | 3.85% | 0.01 | |
| 上市银行 | 2.35% | -1.20% | 0.80% | 1.48% | 1.44% | 3.00% | 2.96% | 3.78% | 0.82 |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
图表3:上市银行各板块单季度业绩增速
| 项目 | 银行类型 | 24Q4 | 25Q1 | 25Q2 | 25Q3 | 25Q4 | 26Q1 | 26Q2 | 26Q3 | 环比 |
| 营业收入 | 国有行 | 2.75% | -1.51% | 5.43% | 1.89% | 3.82% | 9.04% | 9.70% | 9.57% | -0.13 |
| 股份行 | 2.57% | -3.91% | -0.63% | -3.19% | 1.06% | 3.71% | 2.02% | 5.83% | 3.81 | |
| 城商行 | 14.58% | 2.96% | 7.75% | 3.61% | 2.44% | 9.72% | 6.53% | 10.35% | 3.82 | |
| 农商行 | 8.16% | 0.21% | 1.65% | -2.11% | -2.68% | 2.55% | 1.51% | 5.70% | 4.19 | |
| 上市银行 | 3.78% | -1.72% | 3.91% | 0.63% | 2.83% | 7.60% | 7.24% | 8.62% | 1.39 | |
| 利息净收入 | 国有行 | 2.39% | -3.38% | -1.46% | -1.03% | -0.02% | 7.66% | 10.34% | 10.45% | 0.11 |
| 股份行 | -4.01% | -0.53% | -2.99% | 0.95% | 2.71% | 3.52% | 4.92% | 1.97% | -2.95 | |
| 城商行 | 9.54% | 8.45% | 9.05% | 13.34% | 13.61% | 13.76% | 16.14% | 10.84% | -5.30 | |
| 农商行 | 1.44% | -0.91% | -0.20% | 1.46% | 3.13% | 7.69% | 7.65% | 5.35% | -2.30 | |
| 上市银行 | 1.32% | -1.65% | -0.93% | 0.73% | 1.88% | 7.20% | 9.51% | 8.31% | -1.20 | |
| 非息收入 | 国有行 | 4.25% | 3.76% | 28.36% | 12.16% | 19.09% | 12.67% | 8.07% | 6.85% | -1.23 |
| 股份行 | 19.86% | -10.15% | 3.93% | -12.62% | -2.41% | 4.10% | -3.23% | 16.03% | 19.26 | |
| 城商行 | 29.79% | -8.04% | 5.09% | -20.52% | -26.02% | 0.17% | -13.84% | 8.61% | 22.45 | |
| 农商行 | 47.36% | 3.18% | 6.49% | -14.95% | -26.02% | -10.49% | -13.50% | 7.22% | 20.72 | |
| 上市银行 | 12.37% | -1.87% | 16.95% | 0.33% | 5.85% | 8.57% | 2.05% | 9.58% | 7.53 | |
| 净手续费 | 国有行 | -3.14% | -1.45% | 13.99% | 9.37% | 12.44% | 6.30% | -8.85% | -8.84% | 0.01 |
| 股份行 | -3.81% | -0.89% | -0.24% | 5.35% | 9.89% | 3.84% | 2.46% | -5.28% | -7.74 | |
| 城商行 | -2.01% | 10.32% | -2.73% | 21.82% | 40.71% | 8.83% | 1.83% | -22.79% | -24.62 | |
| 农商行 | 19.02% | 4.66% | -3.45% | 11.81% | 5.89% | 10.22% | 2.27% | -0.93% | -3.19 | |
| 上市银行 | -3.23% | -0.72% | 8.16% | 8.54% | 12.43% | 5.79% | -4.75% | -8.28% | -3.53 | |
| 其他 | 国有行 | 11.90% | 12.85% | 42.90% | 14.70% | 25.05% | 22.36% | 21.74% | 20.53% | -1.21 |
| 非息收入 | 股份行 | 43.56% | -17.82% | 7.03% | -30.05% | -10.67% | 4.36% | -7.18% | 47.14% | 54.32 |
| 城商行 | 36.13% | -13.84% | 7.31% | -31.20% | -35.59% | -3.33% | -17.87% | 22.62% | 40.49 | |
| 农商行 | 55.51% | 2.76% | 8.75% | -22.01% | -33.04% | -16.56% | -16.68% | 10.30% | 26.98 | |
| 上市银行 | 26.26% | -3.18% | 23.83% | -6.37% | 1.36% | 11.79% | 6.71% | 26.50% | 19.79 | |
| 拨备前利润 | 国有行 | 3.00% | -2.48% | 6.96% | 0.25% | 2.80% | 11.39% | 13.01% | 16.07% | 3.06 |
| 股份行 | 5.87% | -3.88% | -1.18% | -3.57% | 1.04% | 5.39% | 3.80% | 7.28% | 3.49 | |
| 城商行 | 16.93% | 4.42% | 8.75% | 3.70% | 0.64% | 12.99% | 8.40% | 14.74% | 6.34 | |
| 农商行 | 2.87% | 1.04% | 1.55% | -1.49% | -8.40% | 5.03% | 1.04% | 10.67% | 9.62 | |
| 上市银行 | 5.15% | -2.15% | 4.71% | -0.49% | 1.87% | 9.83% | 9.83% | 13.50% | 3.67 | |
| 归母净利润 | 国有行 | 4.99% | -2.09% | 1.95% | 3.66% | 2.99% | 3.63% | 5.19% | 9.18% | 3.99 |
| 股份行 | 5.95% | -2.05% | 3.15% | -1.08% | 0.33% | -0.26% | -5.28% | -3.31% | 1.97 | |
| 城商行 | 9.75% | 5.49% | 8.61% | 6.73% | -10.80% | 7.35% | 7.16% | -1.73% | -8.89 | |
| 农商行 | 10.55% | 4.77% | 3.97% | 2.04% | -0.54% | 3.78% | 3.89% | 3.87% | -0.02 | |
| 上市银行 | 5.62% | -1.20% | 2.98% | 2.81% | 1.28% | 3.00% | 2.92% | 5.34% | 2.41 |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
从归母净利润增长驱动因素来看,生息资产规模扩张与净息差企稳共同支撑利息业务增长,金融投资相关损益改善进一步增加收入来源。前三季度上市银行净息差测算值为1.35%,与上半年基本持平,净利息收入同比增长 8.34%;投资收益与公允价值变动收益合计同比增加 1,096.13亿元,其中公允价值变动由上年同期损失250.39亿元转为收益848.61亿元,增量较为明显;费用方面,业务及管理费同比增长 1.72%,低于营业收入增速,占营业收入比重由上年同期的29.04%降至 27.40%,收入扩张与费用相对平稳共同推动拨备前利润增长。利息业务稳定增长、金融投资相关损益改善与费用管理共同构成业绩增长的重要基础。
2 生息资产增速放缓,债券投资占比继续提升
截至2026 年三季度末,上市银行生息资产余额为 341.67万亿元,同比增长 7.52%,较上半年末回落0.16个百分点,规模扩张速度总体平稳。分银行类型来看,国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行生息资产同比增速分别为8.23%、5.09%、8.19%、6.92%,国有行与城商行增速相对较高。相较上半年末,国有行增速提高
0.18个百分点,股份行、城商行、农商行分别回落0.68、1.35、0.62 个百分点。国有行资产扩张速度小幅提升,城商行仍保持较快增长,股份行扩张速度相对平缓,各类型银行规模增长节奏有所差异。
资产端分结构来看,上市银行贷款及垫款余额同比增长 6.42%,较上半年末回落0.19个百分点,占生息资产余额的比例为56.37%,较上半年末下降0.46 个百分点。分类型来看,国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行贷款及垫款余额同比分别增长7.00%、3.70%、8.75%、7.25%,城商行增速仍相对较高,较上半年末回落1.43个百分点。考虑到存量规模与边际增速,季度增量主要集中于国有行;债券投资方面,三季度末上市银行债券投资余额同比增长 11.89%,占生息资产比重为 33.21%,较上半年末提高 0.20 个百分点;三季度环比增加23,592.39 亿元,高于同期贷款及垫款增量。从同比增量结构来看,债券投资、贷款及垫款分别占生息资产同比增量的50.47%、48.61%,共同构成规模扩张的主要来源。其他生息资产同比增长0.62%,占生息资产比重升至 10.41%,资产增量来源有所拓宽。
图表10:上市银行各板块生息资产分项增速及结构变化(单位:亿元)
| 银行类型 | 资产类型 | 余额增速 | 余额结构 | 环比增量 | 同比增量占比 | ||||||||
| 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 同比 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 | ||
| 国有行 | 贷款及垫款 | 7.01% | 7.00% | -0.02 | 58.00% | 57.36% | -0.64 | 15176 | 13352 | 696 | 51.05% | 49.34% | -0.97 |
| 债券投资 | 18.25% | 15.71% | -2.54 | 32.28% | 32.44% | 0.15 | 25519 | 19231 | -10933 | 66.92% | 57.92% | 8.02 | |
| 其他生息资产 | -12.10% | -5.13% | 6.98 | 9.72% | 10.20% | 0.49 | -19806 | 15982 | 17475 | -17.97% | -7.25% | -7.05 | |
| 股份行 | 贷款及垫款 | 4.00% | 3.70% | -0.30 | 56.82% | 56.86% | 0.04 | 270 | -363 | -1156 | 40.09% | 41.93% | -3.53 |
| 债券投资 | 5.73% | 4.30% | -1.43 | 31.92% | 32.35% | 0.43 | 3238 | 2755 | -2901 | 31.77% | 27.59% | -31.90 | |
| 其他生息资产 | 15.77% | 15.84% | 0.07 | 11.26% | 10.79% | -0.47 | 4048 | -3547 | -443 | 28.14% | 30.48% | 35.43 | |
| 城商行 | 贷款及垫款 | 10.18% | 8.75% | -1.43 | 49.36% | 48.89% | -0.47 | 2631 | 69 | -1903 | 52.32% | 51.93% | 11.79 |
| 债券投资 | 8.90% | 6.45% | -2.45 | 40.14% | 40.29% | 0.15 | 1458 | 1794 | -2633 | 37.65% | 32.26% | -17.13 | |
| 其他生息资产 | 9.08% | 12.44% | 3.36 | 10.50% | 10.82% | 0.32 | -2725 | 1370 | 1082 | 10.03% | 15.80% | 5.34 | |
| 农商行 | 贷款及垫款 | 7.37% | 7.25% | -0.12 | 53.43% | 53.24% | -0.19 | 203 | 94 | -25 | 52.29% | 55.61% | 10.80 |
| 债券投资 | 7.65% | 7.44% | -0.21 | 35.57% | 35.01% | -0.56 | 501 | -188 | -51 | 36.05% | 37.44% | 6.43 | |
| 其他生息资产 | 8.03% | 3.98% | -4.05 | 11.00% | 11.75% | 0.75 | -142 | 479 | -210 | 11.66% | 6.95% | -17.23 | |
| 上市银行 | 贷款及垫款 | 6.61% | 6.42% | -0.19 | 56.84% | 56.37% | -0.46 | 18280 | 13152 | -2389 | 49.41% | 48.61% | 0.50 |
| 债券投资 | 14.07% | 11.89% | -2.19 | 33.02% | 33.21% | 0.20 | 30716 | 23592 | -16517 | 57.15% | 50.47% | -0.17 | |
| 其他生息资产 | -4.40% | 0.62% | 5.02 | 10.15% | 10.41% | 0.27 | -18626 | 14284 | 17903 | -6.55% | 0.92% | -0.33 | |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
负债端来看,吸收存款增速有所回升,应付债券恢复正增长。截至 2026 年三季度末,上市银行吸收存款余额同比增长6.32%,较上半年末提高0.38 个百分点;应付债券余额同比增长3.37%,由上半年末下降 5.09%转为正增长;其他计息负债同比增长16.03%。吸收存款、应付债券、其他计息负债分别占计息负债余额的 73.01%、7.79%、19.20%,较上半年末分别变化-0.42、+0.30、+0.12 个百分点。三季度三类负债分别环比增加 17,630.42 亿元、12,501.63 亿元、11,982.05亿元,存款季度增量较二季度明显回升,债券融资规模同步扩大,负债扩张来源较为多元。
分银行类型来看,城商行吸收存款同比增长 9.81%,继续高于上市银行整体水平;国有行、股份行、农商行分别增长 6.08%、5.84%、5.31%。股份行存款增速较上半年末提高1.74个百分点,存款占计息负债比重由67.67%升至 68.57%,负债结构进一步向存款倾斜;应付债券方面,国有行、农商行同比分别增长17.12%、16.71%,股份行、城商行分别下降 12.53%、6.85%。国有行应付债券增速较上半年末明显提高,股份行降幅有所收窄,城商行降幅基本稳定。其他计息负债方面,国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行同比分别增长 17.21%、13.28%、16.01%、12.03%,各类型银行均保持两位数增长,增速较上半年末有所回落。
图表11:上市银行各板块计息负债分项增速及结构变化(单位:亿元)
| 银行类型 | 负债类型 | 余额增速 | 余额结构 | 环比增量 | 同比增量占比 | ||||||||
| 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 同比 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 | ||
| 国有行 | 吸收存款 | 6.01% | 6.08% | 0.07 | 76.44% | 75.54% | -0.90 | -4480 | 11531 | 1590 | 54.27% | 54.68% | -3.76 |
| 应付债券 | 3.54% | 17.12% | 13.58 | 5.84% | 6.36% | 0.52 | 20940 | 13346 | 15572 | 2.50% | 11.74% | 2.35 | |
| 其他计息负债 | 24.21% | 17.21% | -6.99 | 17.72% | 18.10% | 0.39 | 5279 | 15304 | -15479 | 43.23% | 33.58% | 1.41 | |
| 股份行 | 吸收存款 | 4.09% | 5.84% | 1.74 | 67.67% | 68.57% | 0.91 | 6254 | 5369 | 7560 | 45.40% | 75.57% | -15.94 |
| 应付债券 | -17.79% | -12.53% | 5.26 | 9.44% | 9.45% | 0.01 | -7302 | -59 | 4693 | -34.84% | -27.05% | -22.79 | |
| 其他计息负债 | 29.71% | 13.28% | -16.44 | 22.89% | 21.98% | -0.91 | 7290 | -6444 | -18140 | 89.44% | 51.48% | 38.73 | |
| 城商行 | 吸收存款 | 9.80% | 9.81% | 0.02 | 64.74% | 64.34% | -0.40 | 1663 | 603 | 81 | 65.10% | 74.69% | 24.39 |
| 应付债券 | -6.80% | -6.85% | -0.05 | 14.44% | 14.05% | -0.39 | -2611 | -781 | 33 | -11.88% | -13.42% | -32.77 | |
| 其他计息负债 | 24.90% | 16.01% | -8.89 | 20.82% | 21.60% | 0.79 | 1655 | 2982 | -3451 | 46.77% | 38.73% | 8.38 | |
| 农商行 | 吸收存款 | 6.54% | 5.31% | -1.23 | 78.29% | 78.14% | -0.15 | 263 | 127 | -456 | 67.74% | 59.92% | -23.69 |
| 应付债券 | 9.23% | 16.71% | 7.48 | 8.10% | 8.06% | -0.05 | 279 | -3 | 256 | 9.64% | 17.54% | 24.53 | |
| 其他计息负债 | 13.36% | 12.03% | -1.34 | 13.61% | 13.80% | 0.19 | -14 | 140 | -62 | 22.61% | 22.54% | -0.84 | |
| 上市银行 | 吸收存款 | 5.94% | 6.32% | 0.38 | 73.43% | 73.01% | -0.42 | 3701 | 17630 | 8775 | 54.23% | 59.91% | -1.39 |
| 应付债券 | -5.09% | 3.37% | 8.45 | 7.50% | 7.79% | 0.30 | 11305 | 12502 | 20554 | -5.29% | 3.50% | -5.64 | |
| 其他计息负债 | 25.53% | 16.03% | -9.50 | 19.07% | 19.20% | 0.12 | 14210 | 11982 | -37132 | 51.06% | 36.59% | 7.03 | |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
3 资负利率同步下行,净息差总体持稳
2026 年前三季度,上市银行净息差、净利差测算值分别为 1.35%、1.25%,较上半年分别微降0.03BP、0.02BP,整体基本稳定。同期生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率分别为 2.60%、1.35%,较上半年分别下降 1.55BP、1.53BP,资负两端利率降幅接近。同比来看,净息差较上年同期下降 0.23BP,净利差提高2.37BP,负债成本下降对利差形成支撑。前三季度累计水平继续保持稳定,息差企稳与规模扩张共同支撑净利息收入增长。
分银行类型来看,前三季度国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行净息差测算值分别为1.31%、1.46%、1.38%、1.48%,较上半年分别变化-0.16BP、+0.36BP、+0.47BP、-0.64BP。股份行、城商行净息差小幅回升,国有行、农商行则有所调整。同比来看,国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行净息差分别变化+0.21BP、-2.36BP、+2.74BP、-0.45BP。行业总体稳定与类型间差异并存。
图表12:上市银行各板块净息差、净利差、生息资产收益率及计息负债成本率情况
| 项目 | 银行类型 | 24A | 25Q1 | 25H1 | 25Q1-Q3 | 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比变化 | 同比变化 |
| 净息差 | 国有行 | 1.45% | 1.32% | 1.31% | 1.30% | 1.31% | 1.29% | 1.31% | 1.31% | -0.16 | 0.21 |
| 股份行 | 1.54% | 1.49% | 1.48% | 1.49% | 1.47% | 1.47% | 1.46% | 1.46% | 0.36 | -2.36 | |
| 城商行 | 1.40% | 1.37% | 1.34% | 1.36% | 1.37% | 1.37% | 1.38% | 1.38% | 0.47 | 2.74 | |
| 农商行 | 1.58% | 1.48% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.48% | -0.64 | -0.45 | |
| 上市银行 | 1.47% | 1.37% | 1.35% | 1.35% | 1.35% | 1.34% | 1.35% | 1.35% | -0.03 | -0.23 | |
| 净利差 | 国有行 | 1.28% | 1.19% | 1.18% | 1.17% | 1.18% | 1.19% | 1.20% | 1.20% | -0.16 | 2.88 |
| 股份行 | 1.40% | 1.37% | 1.35% | 1.37% | 1.36% | 1.37% | 1.36% | 1.37% | 0.42 | 0.08 | |
| 城商行 | 1.25% | 1.24% | 1.22% | 1.23% | 1.25% | 1.27% | 1.28% | 1.28% | 0.52 | 5.22 | |
| 农商行 | 1.45% | 1.37% | 1.37% | 1.37% | 1.38% | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.39% | -0.69 | 2.10 | |
| 上市银行 | 1.31% | 1.24% | 1.22% | 1.22% | 1.23% | 1.24% | 1.25% | 1.25% | -0.02 | 2.37 | |
| 生息资产收益率 | 国有行 | 3.19% | 2.83% | 2.79% | 2.75% | 2.73% | 2.54% | 2.53% | 2.51% | -1.90 | -23.74 |
| 股份行 | 3.43% | 3.12% | 3.07% | 3.04% | 2.98% | 2.78% | 2.74% | 2.74% | -0.44 | -30.19 | |
| 城商行 | 3.43% | 3.12% | 3.07% | 3.06% | 3.05% | 2.83% | 2.83% | 2.82% | -1.05 | -24.00 | |
| 农商行 | 3.41% | 3.09% | 3.08% | 3.05% | 3.01% | 2.78% | 2.78% | 2.76% | -1.61 | -28.96 | |
| 上市银行 | 3.27% | 2.92% | 2.88% | 2.85% | 2.82% | 2.62% | 2.61% | 2.60% | -1.55 | -25.39 | |
| 计息负债成本率 | 国有行 | 1.90% | 1.64% | 1.61% | 1.58% | 1.55% | 1.35% | 1.33% | 1.31% | -1.74 | -26.63 |
| 股份行 | 2.02% | 1.75% | 1.72% | 1.67% | 1.61% | 1.41% | 1.38% | 1.37% | -0.86 | -30.27 | |
| 城商行 | 2.17% | 1.87% | 1.85% | 1.83% | 1.80% | 1.56% | 1.55% | 1.53% | -1.57 | -29.22 | |
| 农商行 | 1.96% | 1.72% | 1.71% | 1.68% | 1.64% | 1.38% | 1.38% | 1.37% | -0.91 | -31.06 | |
| 上市银行 | 1.96% | 1.69% | 1.66% | 1.62% | 1.59% | 1.39% | 1.36% | 1.35% | -1.53 | -27.76 |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
资负两端分别来看,前三季度国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行生息资产收益率测算值分别为 2.51%、2.74%、2.82%、2.76%;负债端成本率分别为 1.31%、1.37%、1.53%、1.37%。其中,股份行资产收益率较上半年下降 0.44BP,负债成本率下降 0.86BP,净利差提高 0.42BP;城商行两项指标分别下降 1.05BP、1.57BP,净利差提高0.52BP。国有行、农商行资产收益率分别下降1.90BP、1.61BP,负债成本率分别下降 1.74BP、0.91BP,净利差分别下降 0.16BP、0.69BP。总体来看,资负利率匹配对息差稳定形成支持。
图表13:上市银行息差情况表
| 银行 | 净息差 | |||||||
| 24A | 25Q1 | 25H1 | 25Q1-Q3 | 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | |
| 农业银行 | 1.42% | 1.34% | 1.32% | 1.30% | 1.28% | 1.26% | 1.28% | 1.28% |
| 交通银行 | 1.27% | 1.23% | 1.21% | 1.20% | 1.20% | 1.23% | 1.23% | 1.24% |
| 工商银行 | 1.42% | 1.33% | 1.30% | 1.28% | 1.28% | 1.29% | 1.29% | 1.29% |
| 建设银行 | 1.51% | 1.41% | 1.40% | 1.36% | 1.34% | 1.36% | 1.37% | 1.36% |
| 中国银行 | 1.40% | 1.29% | 1.26% | 1.26% | 1.26% | 1.26% | 1.27% | 1.27% |
| 平安银行 | 1.87% | 1.83% | 1.80% | 1.79% | 1.78% | 1.79% | 1.80% | 1.80% |
| 浦发银行 | 1.42% | 1.25% | 1.41% | 1.30% | 1.42% | 1.33% | 1.43% | 1.32% |
| 华夏银行 | 1.59% | 1.57% | 1.54% | 1.55% | 1.56% | 1.63% | 1.59% | 1.58% |
| 民生银行 | 1.39% | 1.41% | 1.39% | 1.42% | 1.40% | 1.43% | 1.47% | 1.47% |
| 招商银行 | 1.98% | 1.91% | 1.88% | 1.87% | 1.87% | 1.83% | 1.83% | 1.82% |
| 兴业银行 | 1.82% | 1.80% | 1.75% | 1.72% | 1.71% | 1.62% | 1.60% | 1.60% |
| 光大银行 | 1.54% | 1.32% | 1.40% | 1.34% | 1.40% | 1.35% | 1.42% | 1.36% |
| 浙商银行 | 1.71% | 1.76% | 1.69% | 1.67% | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.56% | 1.55% |
| 中信银行 | 1.77% | 1.65% | 1.63% | 1.63% | 1.63% | 1.61% | 1.62% | 1.60% |
| 兰州银行 | 1.43% | 1.46% | 1.37% | 1.38% | 1.37% | 1.39% | 1.30% | 1.38% |
| 宁波银行 | 1.86% | 1.80% | 1.76% | 1.76% | 1.74% | 1.73% | 1.70% | 1.71% |
| 郑州银行 | 1.72% | 1.66% | 1.64% | 1.58% | 1.61% | 1.50% | 1.52% | 1.54% |
| 青岛银行 | 1.73% | 1.77% | 1.72% | 1.68% | 1.66% | 1.63% | 1.63% | 1.63% |
| 苏州银行 | 1.38% | 1.34% | 1.33% | 1.34% | 1.33% | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.40% |
| 江苏银行 | 1.86% | 1.60% | 1.78% | 1.52% | 1.73% | 1.38% | 1.64% | 1.45% |
| 杭州银行 | 1.41% | 1.22% | 1.35% | 1.24% | 1.36% | 1.33% | 1.39% | 1.28% |
| 西安银行 | 1.36% | 1.47% | 1.70% | 1.66% | 1.85% | 1.86% | 1.99% | 1.79% |
| 南京银行 | 1.94% | 1.18% | 1.86% | 1.23% | 1.82% | 1.41% | 1.79% | 1.43% |
| 北京银行 | 1.47% | 1.19% | 1.31% | 1.19% | 1.27% | 1.14% | 1.26% | 1.16% |
| 厦门银行 | 1.13% | 0.93% | 1.08% | 0.99% | 1.09% | 1.03% | 1.14% | 1.07% |
| 上海银行 | 1.17% | 1.06% | 1.15% | 1.05% | 1.16% | 1.07% | 1.15% | 1.09% |
| 长沙银行 | 2.11% | 1.75% | 1.87% | 1.63% | 1.85% | 1.63% | 1.84% | 1.56% |
| 齐鲁银行 | 1.51% | 1.38% | 1.53% | 1.54% | 1.53% | 1.38% | 1.48% | 1.38% |
| 成都银行 | 1.66% | 1.50% | 1.62% | 1.51% | 1.59% | 1.59% | 1.67% | 1.67% |
| 重庆银行 | 1.35% | 1.43% | 1.39% | 1.32% | 1.39% | 1.35% | 1.46% | 1.43% |
| 贵阳银行 | 1.75% | 1.54% | 1.53% | 1.57% | 1.58% | 1.66% | 1.67% | 1.65% |
| 江阴银行 | 1.76% | 1.51% | 1.54% | 1.56% | 1.60% | 1.54% | 1.57% | 1.54% |
| 张家港行 | 1.62% | 1.43% | 1.43% | 1.42% | 1.39% | 1.35% | 1.35% | 1.36% |
| 青农商行 | 1.67% | 1.64% | 1.61% | 1.61% | 1.60% | 1.68% | 1.62% | 1.67% |
| 无锡银行 | 1.51% | 1.39% | 1.46% | 1.33% | 1.35% | 1.37% | 1.36% | 1.29% |
| 渝农商行 | 1.61% | 1.61% | 1.60% | 1.59% | 1.60% | 1.69% | 1.66% | 1.63% |
| 常熟银行 | 2.71% | 2.61% | 2.58% | 2.57% | 2.53% | 2.50% | 2.48% | 2.42% |
| 瑞丰银行 | 1.50% | 1.46% | 1.46% | 1.49% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.49% | 1.50% |
| 沪农商行 | 1.50% | 1.32% | 1.39% | 1.33% | 1.37% | 1.27% | 1.36% | 1.27% |
| 紫金银行 | 1.42% | 1.23% | 1.18% | 1.17% | 1.13% | 1.08% | 1.09% | 1.11% |
| 苏农银行 | 1.55% | 1.33% | 1.39% | 1.28% | 1.41% | 1.33% | 1.37% | 1.33% |
| 国有行 | 1.45% | 1.32% | 1.31% | 1.30% | 1.31% | 1.29% | 1.31% | 1.31% |
| 股份行 | 1.54% | 1.49% | 1.48% | 1.49% | 1.47% | 1.47% | 1.46% | 1.46% |
| 城商行 | 1.40% | 1.37% | 1.34% | 1.36% | 1.37% | 1.37% | 1.38% | 1.38% |
| 农商行 | 1.58% | 1.48% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.48% |
| 上市银行合计 | 1.47% | 1.37% | 1.35% | 1.35% | 1.35% | 1.34% | 1.35% | 1.35% |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
4 非息收入增长提速,其他非息与手续费表现分化
2026 年前三季度,债市延续上半年收益率下行趋势,权益市场出现震荡调整。上市银行非息收入同比增长6.45%,较上半年提高1.24个百分点。其中,净手续费收入同比下降1.65%,其他非息收入同比增长13.76%,增速较上半年分别变化-2.73、+4.90个百分点。单季度来看,三季度非息收入同比增长9.58%,净手续费收入同比下降8.28%,其他非息收入同比增长26.50%。非息业务整体增长有所加快,主要增量来自其他非息收入,内部增长结构呈现较为明显的分化,体现在手续费收入持续负增。主要原因或为三季度权益市场震荡调整,理财产品需求及资本市场投资热度较上年同期有所下降。
分银行类型来看,国有行前三季度非息收入同比增长 9.30%,环比稍有回落但同比仍显著高于其他类型银行;股份行同比增长4.53%,较上半年提高4.30 个百分点;城商行、农商行分别下降3.24%、7.63%,降幅较上半年分别收窄3.98、4.40个百分点。三季度单季,国有行非息收入同比增长 6.85%,股份行、城商行、农商行分别增长16.03%、8.61%、7.22%,后三类银行均由二季度负增长转为正增长,非息收入回升覆盖更多银行类型。
从手续费表现来看,前三季度国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行净手续费收入同比增速分别为-2.60%、0.39%、-2.78%、4.50%,各类型银行增速均较上半年回落。其中,国有行、城商行累计增速为负,股份行增速放缓,农商行仍保持正增长。权益市场波动背景下,手续费业务延续调整,农商行累计表现相对较好。
其他非息收入方面,前三季度国有行同比增长 21.52%,股份行同比增长8.52%,城商行、农商行分别下降3.41%、10.94%。国有行保持较快增长,股份行由上半年负增长转正,城商行、农商行降幅分别收窄 7.99、5.68个百分点。三季度单季,四类银行其他非息收入同比分别增长 20.53%、47.14%、22.62%、10.30%,除国有行增速保持高位之外,其余各类银行均明显提速,其中股份行最为突出。
图表14:上市银行非利息收入业绩表现
| 项目 | 银行类型 | 24A | 25Q1 | 25H1 | 25Q1-Q3 | 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比 |
| 非息收入 | 国有行 | 4.41% | 3.76% | 14.94% | 14.10% | 15.16% | 12.67% | 10.33% | 9.30% | -1.04 |
| 股份行 | 6.86% | -10.15% | -3.24% | -5.99% | -5.14% | 4.10% | 0.23% | 4.53% | 4.30 | |
| 城商行 | 16.01% | -8.04% | -1.55% | -7.12% | -11.39% | 0.17% | -7.22% | -3.24% | 3.98 | |
| 农商行 | 29.52% | 3.18% | 4.85% | -0.45% | -5.34% | -10.49% | -12.03% | -7.63% | 4.40 | |
| 上市银行 | 6.71% | -1.87% | 7.01% | 5.02% | 5.20% | 8.57% | 5.21% | 6.45% | 1.24 | |
| 净手续费 | 国有行 | -7.87% | -1.45% | 4.69% | 5.93% | 7.15% | 6.30% | -0.26% | -2.60% | -2.34 |
| 股份行 | -12.29% | -0.89% | -0.58% | 1.30% | 3.15% | 3.84% | 3.18% | 0.39% | -2.79 | |
| 城商行 | -9.57% | 10.32% | 4.13% | 8.85% | 13.36% | 8.83% | 5.73% | -2.78% | -8.51 | |
| 农商行 | -1.24% | 4.66% | 0.95% | 3.90% | 4.24% | 10.22% | 6.74% | 4.50% | -2.24 | |
| 上市银行 | -9.38% | -0.72% | 3.06% | 4.60% | 6.13% | 5.79% | 1.08% | -1.65% | -2.73 | |
| 其他非息收入 | 国有行 | 22.93% | 12.85% | 28.83% | 23.92% | 24.19% | 22.36% | 22.00% | 21.52% | -0.47 |
| 股份行 | 29.27% | -17.82% | -5.32% | -12.07% | -11.71% | 4.36% | -2.20% | 8.52% | 10.72 | |
| 城商行 | 24.85% | -13.84% | -3.25% | -11.68% | -17.58% | -3.33% | -11.40% | -3.41% | 7.99 | |
| 农商行 | 40.51% | 2.76% | 5.85% | -1.57% | -7.75% | -16.56% | -16.63% | -10.94% | 5.68 | |
| 上市银行 | 25.76% | -3.18% | 10.76% | 5.40% | 4.41% | 11.79% | 8.86% | 13.76% | 4.90 |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
图表16:上市银行投资和公允价值表现
| 证券名称 | 投资收益/营收 | 公允价值变动/营收 | 其他综合收益/营收 | |||||||||
| 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 25A | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | |
| 农业银行 | 5.92% | 8.75% | 10.79% | 9.99% | 1.36% | 0.77% | -0.07% | 1.93% | -1.74% | -5.53% | -1.04% | -0.92% |
| 交通银行 | 9.22% | 2.75% | 8.56% | 9.02% | 0.33% | 5.48% | 2.14% | 2.47% | -2.11% | -6.69% | -4.60% | -4.82% |
| 工商银行 | 7.55% | 6.35% | 7.70% | 7.78% | 0.06% | 0.32% | 1.33% | 1.45% | -3.63% | -1.24% | -1.64% | -2.29% |
| 建设银行 | 6.46% | 2.01% | 7.29% | 5.82% | -0.56% | 1.57% | 2.95% | 3.93% | -4.83% | -1.23% | 0.02% | -0.78% |
| 中国银行 | 8.10% | 0.02% | 1.95% | 5.07% | -0.52% | 4.86% | 6.65% | 3.07% | -5.56% | -11.85% | -7.86% | -10.18% |
| 平安银行 | 15.58% | 12.79% | 16.32% | 15.35% | -1.92% | 3.31% | 1.86% | 1.49% | -1.60% | -0.20% | 0.06% | -0.14% |
| 浦发银行 | 11.15% | 7.28% | 21.48% | 23.64% | 3.13% | 6.66% | -5.55% | -8.33% | -4.08% | -1.01% | 1.08% | -1.94% |
| 华夏银行 | 21.84% | 7.59% | 11.07% | 12.81% | -3.85% | 8.96% | 8.13% | 7.01% | -6.04% | 2.58% | 2.50% | 0.83% |
| 民生银行 | 10.74% | 2.32% | 7.30% | 7.14% | 2.35% | 14.68% | 7.83% | 6.56% | -1.49% | -1.82% | -0.13% | -3.39% |
| 招商银行 | 10.91% | 4.58% | 7.19% | 7.94% | -2.42% | 2.33% | 2.57% | 0.88% | -5.35% | -0.62% | -0.09% | -1.22% |
| 兴业银行 | 12.84% | 18.79% | 18.38% | 21.18% | 3.94% | 0.79% | 1.70% | -2.31% | -1.05% | -1.88% | -0.13% | -2.85% |
| 光大银行 | 12.19% | 1.71% | 4.14% | 4.96% | -3.46% | 6.77% | 4.98% | 3.36% | -4.68% | 2.62% | 2.42% | 0.97% |
| 浙商银行 | 18.81% | 12.65% | 16.38% | 16.15% | -2.01% | 7.04% | 5.10% | 3.90% | -5.95% | -1.72% | -1.33% | -4.65% |
| 中信银行 | 13.65% | 12.78% | 14.62% | 14.58% | 0.10% | 1.29% | 0.09% | -0.29% | -6.58% | -2.41% | -1.45% | -3.97% |
| 兰州银行 | 20.96% | 17.09% | 20.72% | 21.91% | -4.50% | -3.59% | -0.77% | -6.13% | -15.22% | 6.28% | 5.16% | 5.81% |
| 宁波银行 | 17.97% | 25.53% | 20.89% | 17.54% | -0.88% | -7.47% | -2.32% | -0.92% | -8.67% | 8.89% | 8.94% | 6.50% |
| 郑州银行 | 14.89% | 15.99% | 16.05% | 12.32% | -2.93% | 4.91% | -0.52% | 0.20% | -4.84% | 2.05% | 3.16% | 2.46% |
| 青岛银行 | 15.78% | 10.33% | 14.17% | 11.96% | -1.20% | 5.39% | -0.28% | 3.84% | -5.41% | 5.81% | 4.35% | 2.41% |
| 苏州银行 | 22.10% | 11.19% | 16.40% | 16.29% | -4.51% | 1.48% | -1.26% | -2.00% | -10.20% | 5.93% | 6.20% | 3.13% |
| 江苏银行 | 14.43% | 8.41% | 14.07% | 13.51% | -0.61% | 8.03% | 2.94% | 6.65% | -4.48% | 6.93% | 5.92% | 2.77% |
| 杭州银行 | 22.21% | 13.21% | 11.24% | 11.17% | -5.66% | -2.10% | 0.84% | 1.27% | -6.90% | 4.17% | 1.45% | -2.27% |
| 西安银行 | 12.65% | 4.71% | 17.46% | 17.18% | -4.78% | 7.30% | -4.48% | -4.11% | -5.06% | 0.93% | 4.71% | 7.00% |
| 南京银行 | 33.04% | 21.72% | 18.22% | 20.41% | -4.52% | 1.61% | 5.52% | 2.66% | -4.63% | 1.36% | 3.12% | 0.25% |
| 北京银行 | 18.01% | 18.39% | 16.91% | 14.77% | -1.93% | 3.24% | 3.62% | 3.00% | -7.19% | 5.06% | 4.48% | 2.95% |
| 厦门银行 | 22.19% | 6.76% | 9.41% | 14.41% | -1.47% | 10.32% | 10.11% | 7.09% | -11.39% | 6.11% | 1.26% | 0.22% |
| 上海银行 | 38.00% | 39.03% | 41.14% | 33.91% | -4.68% | -5.83% | -7.06% | -4.18% | -7.33% | 3.46% | 3.98% | 3.41% |
| 长沙银行 | 23.84% | 18.08% | 20.74% | 19.63% | -4.88% | 1.68% | -0.45% | 1.16% | -4.94% | 6.55% | 5.44% | 3.66% |
| 齐鲁银行 | 14.45% | 8.84% | 9.88% | 10.33% | -4.94% | 1.84% | 2.39% | 0.11% | -14.93% | 3.53% | 9.87% | 7.29% |
| 成都银行 | 14.75% | 2.10% | 10.37% | 8.21% | 0.08% | 5.05% | -2.72% | -1.32% | -6.65% | 7.86% | 6.88% | 5.72% |
| 重庆银行 | 18.25% | 5.01% | 7.18% | 6.85% | -5.49% | 1.29% | 0.70% | 0.79% | -13.18% | 4.51% | 6.12% | 6.41% |
| 贵阳银行 | 22.37% | 11.74% | 12.06% | 11.87% | -6.72% | 3.97% | 3.27% | 2.85% | -11.71% | 6.05% | 6.15% | 5.15% |
| 江阴银行 | 28.60% | 31.44% | 34.90% | 27.99% | -1.35% | 4.65% | 2.12% | 3.38% | -7.45% | 0.19% | 5.49% | 7.55% |
| 张家港行 | 29.62% | 34.65% | 32.36% | 26.87% | 2.94% | -0.87% | 1.71% | 2.80% | -7.21% | 0.73% | 3.48% | 1.87% |
| 青农商行 | 25.62% | 9.30% | 10.82% | 9.08% | -9.12% | 9.46% | 7.83% | 8.97% | -7.79% | 2.96% | 5.90% | 5.52% |
| 无锡银行 | 26.00% | 25.46% | 27.88% | 25.27% | -0.46% | 0.83% | 0.63% | 0.51% | -5.83% | 4.12% | 3.48% | 2.50% |
| 渝农商行 | 14.27% | 5.80% | 7.60% | 8.41% | -3.82% | 2.01% | 1.91% | 1.00% | -10.11% | 11.56% | 13.03% | 12.39% |
| 常熟银行 | 15.70% | 23.55% | 22.22% | 18.79% | -0.76% | -5.04% | -4.03% | -2.69% | -1.63% | 4.80% | 4.08% | -1.60% |
| 瑞丰银行 | 21.98% | 10.59% | 14.72% | 13.86% | -1.90% | 5.77% | 3.04% | 3.25% | -19.32% | 7.44% | 10.18% | 7.78% |
| 沪农商行 | 13.09% | 12.03% | 14.97% | 16.82% | 1.12% | 2.41% | 1.68% | 0.08% | -15.66% | 2.87% | -0.19% | -3.49% |
| 紫金银行 | 17.54% | 25.06% | 20.45% | 17.77% | -0.43% | 0.99% | 0.99% | 0.54% | -12.48% | 3.85% | 3.80% | 3.79% |
| 苏农银行 | 37.10% | 30.83% | 29.80% | 26.51% | -4.45% | 1.28% | 2.61% | 1.08% | -16.52% | 2.33% | 4.24% | -4.16% |
| 国有行 | 7.70% | 4.78% | 7.69% | 7.84% | 0.11% | 2.02% | 2.47% | 2.40% | -3.49% | -4.27% | -2.32% | -3.08% |
| 股份行 | 13.11% | 8.89% | 12.73% | 13.59% | -0.16% | 4.76% | 2.24% | 0.51% | -4.08% | -0.76% | 0.18% | -1.86% |
| 城商行 | 21.46% | 17.40% | 18.29% | 16.64% | -2.89% | 1.16% | 0.57% | 1.46% | -7.10% | 5.36% | 5.30% | 3.29% |
| 农商行 | 18.48% | 15.14% | 16.41% | 15.46% | -1.98% | 2.05% | 1.71% | 1.35% | -10.63% | 5.60% | 6.00% | 3.87% |
| 上市银行合计 | 10.58% | 7.19% | 10.10% | 10.23% | -0.27% | 2.63% | 2.22% | 1.82% | -4.10% | -2.31% | -0.83% | -2.06% |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
从投资相关损益来看,前三季度上市银行投资收益占营业收入的比例为10.23%,较上半年的 10.10%小幅提高;公允价值变动损益占营业收入的比例为
1.82%,较上半年的2.22%有所下降。其中国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行公允价值变动收益占营业收入的比例分别为2.40%、0.51%、1.46%、1.35%,其中城商行较上半年提高,其余三类银行有所回落;其他综合收益方面,前三季度整体为负,与营业收入的比值为-2.06%。 基于实际披露数据(部分上市银行未披露相关数据),银行通过出售配置盘摊余成本计量的债券(AC)和公允价值计量且计入其他综合收益的债券(FVOCI)兑现收益增厚营收的情况边际上有所减少,以摊余成本计量的金融资产终止确认收益占营收规模比例为 2.70%,环比有所下降。
5 不良率总体稳定,信用成本与拨备表现小幅波动
截至2026年三季度末,上市银行整体不良贷款率为1.22%,总体保持稳定。不良贷款率稳定的同时,不良贷款余额为 24,066.10 亿元,较上半年末增加174.76 亿元,较 2025年末增长 5.51%,略低于同期贷款总额 5.76%的增幅。与上半年相比,行业总体资产质量指标整体稳定,银行间差异稍有扩大,多数银行指标稳定与部分银行不良率有所上升同时体现。
分银行类型来看,国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行三季度末不良贷款率分别为1.24%、1.21%、1.08%、1.03%,较上半年末分别变化-0.69BP、+0.68BP、+5.31BP、-0.44BP。国有行、农商行不良率小幅下降,股份行略有上升,城商行变化相对明显。从个股层面来看,42家上市银行中,不良率较上半年末下降、持平、上升的分别为12家、24 家、6家,多数银行保持稳定。随经济基本面修复、权益市场回暖、政策刺激进一步落地,资产质量有望保持稳健提升趋势,出现大面积暴露概率较小。
图表17:上市银行不良贷款率、不良贷款余额变化(单位:亿元)
| 证券名称 | 不良率 | 不良贷款余额 | 贷款总规模 | ||||||||
| 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比变化 | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | 环比变化 | 26Q1 | 26H1 | 26Q1-Q3 | |
| 农业银行 | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.23% | -0.02 | 3554 | 3597 | 3587 | -10 | 284241 | 287662 | 290606 |
| 交通银行 | 1.30% | 1.30% | 1.29% | -0.01 | 1225 | 1235 | 1239 | 4 | 94446 | 94897 | 95975 |
| 工商银行 | 1.31% | 1.29% | 1.29% | 0.00 | 4139 | 4118 | 4168 | 50 | 316483 | 319921 | 322342 |
| 建设银行 | 1.31% | 1.29% | 1.29% | 0.00 | 3772 | 3790 | 3790 | 0 | 288906 | 292868 | 294912 |
| 中国银行 | 1.22% | 1.22% | 1.22% | 0.00 | 2970 | 3018 | 3041 | 23 | 244023 | 246953 | 249701 |
| 平安银行 | 1.05% | 1.05% | 1.05% | 0.00 | 364 | 362 | 360 | -3 | 34646 | 34523 | 34315 |
| 浦发银行 | 1.23% | 1.25% | 1.24% | -0.01 | 718 | 732 | 731 | -1 | 58310 | 58683 | 59109 |
| 华夏银行 | 1.55% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 0.00 | 429 | 415 | 410 | -5 | 27666 | 27700 | 27347 |
| 民生银行 | 1.46% | 1.47% | 1.46% | -0.01 | 661 | 663 | 661 | -2 | 45270 | 45100 | 45210 |
| 招商银行 | 0.94% | 0.94% | 0.94% | 0.00 | 699 | 703 | 701 | -2 | 74644 | 74530 | 74530 |
| 兴业银行 | 1.08% | 1.08% | 1.08% | 0.00 | 662 | 664 | 664 | -1 | 61550 | 61646 | 61500 |
| 光大银行 | 1.32% | 1.44% | 1.54% | 0.10 | 534 | 586 | 624 | 38 | 40561 | 40683 | 40462 |
| 浙商银行 | 1.36% | 1.36% | 1.36% | 0.00 | 273 | 272 | 273 | 1 | 20132 | 20006 | 20150 |
| 中信银行 | 1.15% | 1.15% | 1.15% | 0.00 | 687 | 689 | 688 | -1 | 59995 | 60086 | 59986 |
| 兰州银行 | 1.78% | 1.78% | 1.98% | 0.20 | 48 | 47 | 51 | 4 | 2718 | 2662 | 2567 |
| 宁波银行 | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.00 | 144 | 148 | 150 | 2 | 18970 | 19500 | 19707 |
| 郑州银行 | 1.69% | 1.68% | 1.67% | -0.01 | 70 | 71 | 71 | 0 | 4136 | 4188 | 4235 |
| 青岛银行 | 0.96% | 0.95% | 0.90% | -0.05 | 40 | 41 | 39 | -2 | 4194 | 4277 | 4301 |
| 苏州银行 | 0.82% | 0.81% | 0.81% | 0.00 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 4126 | 4171 | 4215 |
| 江苏银行 | 0.81% | 0.81% | 0.81% | 0.00 | 218 | 224 | 226 | 1 | 26898 | 27703 | 27798 |
| 杭州银行 | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.00 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 1 | 11531 | 11623 | 11728 |
| 西安银行 | 1.64% | 1.76% | 1.81% | 0.05 | 49 | 51 | 53 | 1 | 2954 | 2915 | 2910 |
| 南京银行 | 0.83% | 0.82% | 0.83% | 0.01 | 127 | 128 | 130 | 3 | 15346 | 15678 | 15688 |
| 北京银行 | 1.32% | 1.30% | 1.29% | -0.01 | 319 | 312 | 310 | -2 | 24200 | 24021 | 24055 |
| 厦门银行 | 0.72% | 0.73% | 0.77% | 0.04 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 2 | 2591 | 2670 | 2737 |
| 上海银行 | 1.18% | 1.42% | 1.99% | 0.57 | 175 | 217 | 298 | 81 | 14846 | 15288 | 14977 |
| 长沙银行 | 1.15% | 1.15% | 1.15% | 0.00 | 74 | 76 | 75 | -1 | 6469 | 6576 | 6479 |
| 齐鲁银行 | 1.03% | 0.98% | 0.98% | 0.00 | 43 | 42 | 43 | 1 | 4144 | 4266 | 4370 |
| 成都银行 | 0.68% | 0.68% | 0.68% | 0.00 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 0 | 8929 | 9011 | 8967 |
| 重庆银行 | 1.12% | 1.11% | 1.11% | 0.00 | 63 | 64 | 66 | 1 | 5607 | 5800 | 5892 |
| 贵阳银行 | 1.59% | 1.78% | 1.74% | -0.04 | 57 | 64 | 61 | -3 | 3567 | 3594 | 3520 |
| 江阴银行 | 0.82% | 0.81% | 0.80% | -0.01 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 1410 | 1416 | 1426 |
| 张家港行 | 0.94% | 0.94% | 0.93% | -0.01 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 1562 | 1571 | 1582 |
| 青农商行 | 1.74% | 1.74% | 1.73% | -0.01 | 50 | 50 | 49 | -1 | 2853 | 2855 | 2816 |
| 无锡银行 | 0.77% | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.00 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 1804 | 1815 | 1832 |
| 渝农商行 | 1.07% | 1.05% | 1.05% | 0.00 | 89 | 88 | 88 | -1 | 8301 | 8447 | 8369 |
| 常熟银行 | 0.75% | 0.75% | 0.75% | 0.00 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 2694 | 2736 | 2746 |
| 瑞丰银行 | 1.09% | 1.09% | 1.09% | 0.00 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1457 | 1468 | 1483 |
| 沪农商行 | 0.96% | 0.94% | 0.94% | 0.00 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 1 | 8037 | 7999 | 8132 |
| 紫金银行 | 1.34% | 1.33% | 1.33% | 0.00 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 1986 | 2001 | 2010 |
| 苏农银行 | 0.88% | 0.86% | 0.86% | 0.00 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1476 | 1466 | 1454 |
| 国有行 | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.24% | -0.01 | 16666 | 16787 | 16849 | 62 | 1329410 | 1344970 | 1357455 |
| 股份行 | 1.19% | 1.20% | 1.21% | 0.01 | 5028 | 5087 | 5111 | 24 | 422774 | 422956 | 422609 |
| 城商行 | 1.01% | 1.03% | 1.08% | 0.05 | 1627 | 1688 | 1777 | 89 | 161228 | 163941 | 164146 |
| 农商行 | 1.05% | 1.04% | 1.03% | 0.00 | 330 | 329 | 329 | -1 | 31581 | 31774 | 31849 |
| 上市银行合计 | 1.22% | 1.22% | 1.22% | 0.00 | 23651 | 23891 | 24066 | 175 | 1944992 | 1963642 | 1976059 |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所;部分银行季报不披露相关数据,以最近一期定期报告披露数据计算
信用成本角度,从 2022年至今上市银行各期定期报告数据来看,读数显现了较强的季度性波动。三季度上市银行信用成本测算值为 0.17%,较二季度下降7.43BP,较上年同期提高 2.59BP,整体稍有上行。分类型来看,国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行三季度信用成本分别为0.11%、0.31%、0.28%、0.12%,较上年同期分别提高 1.26BP、5.39BP、6.35BP、3.07BP。股份行、城商行信用成本在四类银行中相对较高且同比提升幅度稍大,与其归母净利润增速承压的表现相对应。
拨备覆盖率方面,2026年三季度末上市银行整体拨备覆盖率为228.66%,较上半年末下降4.33个百分点,较上年同期下降7.13个百分点。分类型来看,国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行拨备覆盖率分别为229.25%、206.12%、273.08%、308.67%,较上半年末分别下降 4.45、4.13、5.68、4.32 个百分点。城商行、农商行拨备覆盖率仍相对较高。
6 投资建议
当前上市银行营收与盈利增速有所回升、净息差总体企稳、非息收入改善,但银行间资产质量表现有所分化。建议兼顾资产质量与股息回报。
投资方向上:一是建议关注地产及建筑产业链风险敞口相对较小的银行:江苏银行、南京银行、成都银行等。二是建议关注资产质量夯实、不良生成改善的银行:建设银行、平安银行等。
图表20:26Q3 上市银行主要指标表现
| 证券名称 | PB (MRQ) | PE (TTM) | 归母净利润增速 | ROE (TTM) | 风险加权资产增速 | 拨备覆盖率 |
| 农业银行 | 0.8535 | 8.1883 | 7.10% | 10.59% | 7.91% | 289.13% |
| 交通银行 | 0.5864 | 7.0252 | 6.10% | 8.41% | 4.71% | 200.11% |
| 工商银行 | 0.7448 | 7.8875 | 5.83% | 9.59% | 8.77% | 211.64% |
| 建设银行 | 0.8081 | 8.3526 | 6.55% | 9.68% | 6.59% | 233.21% |
| 中国银行 | 0.7883 | 8.7080 | 5.53% | 9.06% | 8.92% | 198.30% |
| 平安银行 | 0.4795 | 5.1664 | 2.21% | 9.12% | 6.61% | 214.75% |
| 浦发银行 | 0.4188 | 6.1631 | 4.52% | 6.82% | 6.17% | 195.66% |
| 华夏银行 | 0.3115 | 3.9764 | -18.02% | 7.38% | 9.37% | 144.21% |
| 民生银行 | 0.2651 | 5.3508 | -14.78% | 4.59% | 1.73% | 142.21% |
| 招商银行 | 0.9088 | 6.8596 | 2.38% | 12.93% | 4.60% | 389.39% |
| 兴业银行 | 0.4568 | 5.0622 | -3.79% | 8.82% | 7.13% | 222.68% |
| 光大银行 | 0.3539 | 5.4571 | -23.63% | 5.84% | 1.82% | 143.67% |
| 浙商银行 | 0.4354 | 6.0436 | 0.96% | 7.10% | 4.48% | 155.96% |
| 中信银行 | 0.6781 | 7.0582 | 3.56% | 9.56% | 7.42% | 201.94% |
| 兰州银行 | 0.3873 | 6.7529 | -10.03% | 5.43% | -2.65% | 170.05% |
| 宁波银行 | 0.9637 | 7.5174 | 12.05% | 13.07% | 8.54% | 373.63% |
| 郑州银行 | 0.3369 | 8.1367 | 5.21% | 4.22% | 6.31% | 199.18% |
| 青岛银行 | 0.8190 | 6.2342 | 15.67% | 13.09% | 12.17% | 355.97% |
| 苏州银行 | 0.7848 | 7.4046 | 8.13% | 10.52% | 12.96% | 370.73% |
| 江苏银行 | 0.8372 | 6.2867 | 8.21% | 13.15% | 7.18% | 316.70% |
| 杭州银行 | 0.8624 | 6.1461 | 9.76% | 14.28% | 9.30% | 470.95% |
| 西安银行 | 0.4348 | 5.8850 | 7.93% | 7.53% | -3.88% | 279.75% |
| 南京银行 | 0.7667 | 6.4855 | 8.03% | 11.75% | 9.39% | 321.15% |
| 北京银行 | 0.4131 | 5.6259 | 6.10% | 7.34% | -4.77% | 200.59% |
| 厦门银行 | 0.6627 | 6.6962 | 3.82% | 9.65% | 7.80% | 303.76% |
| 上海银行 | 0.5423 | 5.7469 | -24.49% | 7.77% | 6.20% | 163.76% |
| 长沙银行 | 0.5140 | 4.6897 | 5.40% | 10.94% | 8.89% | 281.04% |
| 齐鲁银行 | 0.8435 | 7.1314 | 12.47% | 11.64% | 13.95% | 359.91% |
| 成都银行 | 0.8875 | 6.0306 | 4.48% | 14.72% | 8.65% | 448.06% |
| 重庆银行 | 0.6821 | 6.7882 | 11.06% | 10.03% | 11.35% | 249.48% |
| 贵阳银行 | 0.3107 | 3.9943 | -10.34% | 7.20% | 2.26% | 227.80% |
| 江阴银行 | 0.5602 | 5.4955 | 3.72% | 10.04% | 9.49% | 332.39% |
| 张家港行 | 0.5476 | 5.2520 | 2.22% | 10.17% | 7.72% | 307.01% |
| 青农商行 | 0.4263 | 5.1223 | 2.51% | 8.03% | 5.24% | 233.81% |
| 无锡银行 | 0.5411 | 5.5141 | 2.51% | 9.77% | 9.43% | 402.19% |
| 渝农商行 | 0.5445 | 6.0492 | 7.86% | 9.01% | 13.86% | 353.00% |
| 常熟银行 | 0.6958 | 5.1566 | 8.02% | 13.26% | 5.25% | 406.24% |
| 瑞丰银行 | 0.4944 | 5.1086 | 1.02% | 9.49% | 8.77% | 301.06% |
| 沪农商行 | 0.6239 | 6.7110 | 1.06% | 9.29% | 13.17% | 303.09% |
| 紫金银行 | 0.4538 | 7.4091 | -4.71% | 5.55% | 7.69% | 178.86% |
| 苏农银行 | 0.4998 | 4.7958 | 2.00% | 10.26% | 5.48% | 324.18% |
资料来源:iFind,中邮证券研究所
7 风险提示
模型测算误差,假设与实际偏离,政策落地不及预期,外部事件超预期恶化,不良资产大面积暴露。
中邮证券投资评级说明
| 投资评级标准 | 类型 | 评级 | 说明 |
| 报告中投资建议的评级标准:报告发布日后的6个月内的相对市场表现,即报告发布日后的6个月内的公司股价(或行业指数、可转债价格)的涨跌幅相对同期相关证券市场基准指数的涨跌幅。市场基准指数的选取:A股市场以沪深300指数为基准;新三板市场以三板成指为基准;可转债市场以中信标普可转债指数为基准;香港市场以恒生指数为基准;美国市场以标普500或纳斯达克综合指数为基准。 | 股票评级 | 买入 | 预期个股相对同期基准指数涨幅在20%以上 |
| 增持 | 预期个股相对同期基准指数涨幅在10%与20%之间 | ||
| 中性 | 预期个股相对同期基准指数涨幅在-10%与10%之间 | ||
| 回避 | 预期个股相对同期基准指数涨幅在-10%以下 | ||
| 行业评级 | 强于大市 | 预期行业相对同期基准指数涨幅在10%以上 | |
| 中性 | 预期行业相对同期基准指数涨幅在-10%与10%之间 | ||
| 弱于大市 | 预期行业相对同期基准指数涨幅在-10%以下 | ||
| 可转债评级 | 推荐 | 预期可转债相对同期基准指数涨幅在10%以上 | |
| 谨慎推荐 | 预期可转债相对同期基准指数涨幅在5%与10%之间 | ||
| 中性 | 预期可转债相对同期基准指数涨幅在-5%与5%之间 | ||
| 回避 | 预期可转债相对同期基准指数涨幅在-5%以下 |
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