裕元集團：預計下半年經營環境仍將持續波動

裕元集團:

預計下半年經營環境仍將持續波動

d/g to ACCUMULATE: 26H1E net profit dragged by rising costs; market volatility could persist into H2E

投資要點 Investment Thesis

公司發佈半年報

FY26H1公司營收39.72億美元，同減2.2%；歸母淨利7200萬美元，同減57.9%；其中製造歸母淨利同減67.9%至4980萬美元，寶勝歸母淨利同增29.9%至人民幣2.437億元。每股基本盈利4.49美分，去年同期則為10.67美分。

FY26H1制鞋活動（包括運動/戶外鞋、休閒鞋及運動涼鞋）營收同減4.8%至24.85億美元；鞋履出貨量同減6.4%，部分被平均售價1.6%漲幅抵消。公司運動/戶外鞋類占鞋履製造營收83.1%，休閒鞋及運動涼鞋占鞋履製造營收16.9%。

公司製造業務（包括鞋履、鞋底、配件及其他）總收入26.66億美元，同減4.7%。

26H1公司製造業務出貨118.6百萬雙鞋，同減6.4%；每雙鞋履平均售價20.95美元，同增1.6%。生產配置方面，按鞋履雙數計，印尼、越南及中國大陸繼續為公司之主要生產地區，分別占鞋履總出貨量的52%、33%及9%。

零售業務，寶勝貢獻營收同增3.5%至1306.2百萬美元，以人民幣（寶勝呈報貨幣）計，營收同減2.1%至人民幣8,964.6百萬元。營收跌幅收窄，主要歸因於寶勝持續提升銷售效能，並打造全域一站式運營。截至26H1寶勝於大中華地區設有3,110間直營零售店鋪，較25年年底淨關店200間。寶勝以一盤棋規劃新品牌及新渠道佈局，選擇性調整或改造現有店鋪作為寶勝精緻化零售策略之核心，有助其專注提升單店效益。

預計下半年經營環境仍將持續波動

儘管全球經濟面對眾多不利因素，公司將繼續穩固其策略性供應商的地位，強化多地高階鞋履開發實力，同時持續深化與國際領導品牌的永續夥伴關係，以充分把握市場絕佳機遇，爭取優質訂單組合。

公司預計26H2經營環境仍將持續波動，通膨壓力及宏觀經濟走勢均存在變數，或將進一步抑制消費動能。多重不確定因素影響，整體景氣可能持續震盪，短期訂單需求能見度有待提升。

公司將繼續密切關注全球政經情勢變化，包括審慎應對區域衝突風險的潛在干擾，借此契機進一步推動採購多元化，及強化本地採購的中長期策略，並加強成本與費用管控，以降低相關不確定因素對營運穩定性的影響。

公司繼續致力於其中長期產能佈局策略，包括瞄準勞動力供應及基礎設施能支持永續增長的印尼及印度，為其製造產能作多元化配置。未來將因應品牌需求，靈活調整新造產線的投產及爬坡時程。公司以快速反應為核心指導原則，致力於校準訂單需求、排程規劃及人力配置，以提升利用率之穩健平衡，進而鞏固營運效率。

公司亦將進一步增強經營韌性，打造高度敏捷而靈活的卓越製造營運模式，同時善用其核心競爭優勢及超卓調節能力，輔以嚴謹成本與費用管控，以及長期數位化轉型策略，以持續穩固公司製造業務的盈利能力，並維持現金流的健康度以至財務狀況的穩健度。

公司亦將平衡量、價永續增長策略，善用「運動休閒」市場機遇，充分結合公司自動化科技及研發實力的整合型產品開發實踐能力，建構更具利基優勢的產品組合。

In the wake of operational challenges in H1, YY predicts the current volatile market will persist into 26H2E, limiting order visibility. Hence, it is activating plans for a robust flexible production system, along with rigorous efficiency and cost management. We downgrade our call to ACCUMULATE.

The gist: ACCUMULATE

- 26H1E results: net profit slid sharply on manufacturing business weakness

- Operations: manufacturing hit by costs and scheduling; retail performed better

- 26H2E outlook: market volatility is likely to persist; d/g to ACCUMULATE.

26H1E results: net profit slid sharply on manufacturing business weakness

Key metrics: Yue Yuen Industrial (YY) released unaudited 26H1E results last week:

- Revenue arrived at USD3.97bn, dipping 2.2% yoy.

- Net profit came to USD72m, down 57.9% yoy, dragged by manufacturing business weakness:

- Manufacturing: Net profit fell 67.9% yoy to USD49.8m.

- Pou Sheng: The retail arm grew net profit by 29.9% yoy to RMB243.7m.

- EPS: Basic EPS came to 4.49 US cents, vs 10.67 US cents a year ago.

Key factors: Footwear—the main product category of the manufacturing business—contributed USD2.49bn revenue in H1, 4.8% yoy lower:

- Shipments fell 6.4% yoy, although ASP rose 1.6%.

- A revenue breakdown shows:

- Athletic and outdoor products contributed 83.1% of footwear revenue.

- Casual shoes and sports sandals accounted for the remaining 16.9%.

Operations: manufacturing hit by costs and scheduling; retail performed better

Manufacturing: The manufacturing business generated 4.7% yoy less revenue at USD2.67bn in H1, amid rising costs and uneven production scheduling in Q1 related to long holidays. Apart from footwear, YY also produces insoles and other accessories.

Operations:

- Shipments: The company shipped 118.6m pairs of shoes in H1, down 6.4% yoy.

- ASP: It sold the shoes at USD20.95 per pair on average, up 1.6% yoy.

- Production allocation: Shipment distribution by primary production region (based on pairs of shoes):

- Indonesia: 52%

- Vietnam: 33%

- Chinese Mainland: 9%.

Retail: Subsidiary Pou Sheng contributed USD1.31bn to revenue in H1, up 3.5% yoy (although in its RMB reporting currency, retail revenue fell 2.1% yoy to RMB8.96bn). The retail arm attributes its revenue improvement to better sales efficiency and the company-wide establishment of a one-stop-shop operating model.

Operations:

- Store network: Pou Sheng ran 3,110 direct-sales retail stores in Greater China as of H1, after net closing 200 stores vs end-2025.

- Strategic revamp: The implementation of a comprehensive refined retail strategy is underway as the company revamps store branding and the channel network. At the core of the strategy is the selective renovation or tweaking of stores to raise total per-store profitability.

26H2E outlook: consumer market volatility likely to persist, affecting operations

In the face of multiple global economic headwinds, YY aims to stay competitive through the following approaches:

- Entrench its position as a strategic supplier.

- Further develop premium footwear capabilities across multiple regions.

- Deepen sustainable partnerships with leading international brands to fully capture lucrative market opportunities and ensure a high-quality order mix.

Geopolitical pressures: The company predicts the current volatile market will persist into 26H2E, where inflationary pressure and other macroeconomic trends could add uncertainty and dampen consumer activity. Amid global economic fluctuations, it expects demand and order visibility will be limited in the short term.

Risk management: The company is keeping a close eye on geopolitical and economic shifts. It would entail addressing prudently any potential disruption that arises from regional conflicts. The current climate offers an opportunity to ensure procurement diversity, while firming its local sourcing strategy for the medium to long term. Meanwhile, rigorous tamping of costs and expenses would mitigate the impact of market uncertainties on operational stability.

Nimble production: To instill operational resilience, the company is putting in place an agile manufacturing operation model:

- Indonesia and India focus: With its sights set on a diverse manufacturing network, YY is committed to building out production capacity over the medium to long term. Its focus is on Indonesia and India for their sustainable growth potential in terms of labor supply and infrastructural support.

- Demand-driven flexibility: The company is working toward a flexible production capacity system, where new production lines could start up and ramp up capacities flexibly, according to brands’ demand requirements.

- Rapid service response: To fulfill its core service goal of rapid responsiveness, YY aims to calibrate order demand, scheduling, and staff allocation to ensure smooth production capacity utilization and better operational efficiency.

Competitive agenda:

- Key strengths: YY aims to leverage its key competitive advantages, including high operational versatility, and rigorous cost and expense management. Aided by a long-term digital revamp plan, it aims to stabilize profitability at the manufacturing business and ensure healthy cash flow and sound financials.

- Product strategies:

- Balance volume and price considerations toward sustainable growth.

- Capitalize sports and leisure   market opportunities.

- Integrated product development: combine technical prowess, the use of automation, and R&D knowhow to build a product portfolio with greater niche advantages.

投資建議 Investment Ideas

調整盈利預測，調整為“增持”評級

基於26年上半年業績表現，我們調整盈利預測，預計FY26-28年營收分別為78.0/80.5/83.6億美元（前值為80.0/81.5/83.7億美元），淨利分別為2.5/3.0/3.8億美元（原值為3.6/3.8/4.1億美元），EPS分別為0.16/0.19/0.23元，對應PE分別為11/9/8x。

Valuation and risks

Factoring in 26H1E results, we lowered our 2026/27/28E forecasts to USD7.80bn/8.05bn/ 8.36bn revenue (previously USD8.00bn/8.15bn/8.37bn) and USD250m/300m/ 380m net profit (previously USD360m/380m/410m). Our revised projections imply RMB0.16/0.19/ 0.23 EPS at 11x/9x/8x PE. We downgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE.

風險提示

消費景氣度不及預期，關稅變化，原料價格波動，產能爬坡進度不及預期，市場競爭激烈等。

Risks include

less of a consumer market upswing than expected; adverse tariff changes; raw material price fluctuation; production capacity ramping up more slowly than expected; and intensifying competition.

聯繫方式 Contacts             research@tfisec.com

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